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Cross-Venue
Kalshi and Polymarket often price the same event differently. Right now the widest split W.E.T. tracks is "Merida vs Jacquet" — 69% on Kalshi versus 31% on Polymarket, a 38-point gap on the favorite, as of July 22, 2026.
W.E.T. tracks both books side by side — how they differ, and where their odds disagree. We take no bets and hold no funds; implied probability is a live market price, not advice. See the methodology.
Where the books disagree
Live markets both venues price, aligned on the same favorite and sorted by the size of the gap. Each row is a full market page.
| Market | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merida vs JacquetDaniel Merida | 69% | 31% | 38pt |
| Merida vs DroguetDaniel Merida | 61% | 40% | 21pt |
| Basilashvili vs TiranteThiago Agustin Tirante | 61% | 81% | 20pt |
| ToPo vs Ugo CarabelliCamilo Ugo Carabelli | 54% | 40% | 14pt |
| Mayweather vs PacquiaoFloyd Mayweather Jr. | 69% | 57% | 12pt |
| Sakellaridi vs TonaMiriana Tona | 95% | 83% | 12pt |
| Cecchinato vs BurruchagaRoman Andres Burruchaga | 74% | 64% | 10pt |
| Bouzkova vs Bouzas ManeiroMarie Bouzkova | 80% | 73% | 7pt |
| Amariei vs JacquemotElsa Jacquemot | 99% | 92% | 7pt |
| Barthel vs PutintsevaYulia Putintseva | 89% | 95% | 6pt |
| Shevchenko vs StrickerAleksandr Shevchenko | 94% | 88% | 6pt |
| Putintseva vs CharaevaYulia Putintseva | 71% | 76% | 5pt |
| Gaubas vs Carreno BustaPablo Carreno Busta | 73% | 69% | 4pt |
| Kym vs TsitsipasStefanos Tsitsipas | 64% | 60% | 4pt |
| Bouzkova vs LeeMarie Bouzkova | 74% | 71% | 3pt |
Gap = points of disagreement on the favorite’s implied probability. A wide gap means the two crowds price the same outcome differently — a signal, not a recommendation.
103
Markets both venues price
38pt
Widest gap right now
2
Books, one neutral view
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Structure | CFTC-regulated US exchange (a designated contract market) | Crypto-native, decentralized markets on Polygon |
| Funding | US dollars — bank transfer or debit | USDC stablecoin via a crypto wallet |
| US access | Open to eligible US persons | Historically geofenced for US persons — check current eligibility |
| Market focus | Economics, politics, weather, and sports | Politics, crypto, culture, and sports — deepest crypto book |
| Settlement | Exchange rules against official sources | On-chain resolution via a decentralized oracle |
| Price = probability | Cents per contract read as implied % | Cents per share read as implied % |
Venue features and eligibility change — confirm current terms on each venue directly. W.E.T. does not route orders and takes no position on which venue you should use.
Why the cross-venue view matters
A venue’s own site can only show its own book. W.E.T. is neutral — we aggregate both, align the same outcome across them, and surface the gap. When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, that’s information: it flags where liquidity is thin, where a catalyst hasn’t fully priced in, or simply where two crowds see the same event differently. See exactly how we compute and align the split in the methodology.
Answers
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange funded in dollars; Polymarket is a crypto-native, decentralized market funded in USDC and settled on-chain. Their event coverage overlaps on politics and sports but differs elsewhere — Polymarket runs the deepest crypto book, Kalshi the deepest economics and weather books. Both price contracts in cents that read as implied probability.
Often no. When both venues list the same event, their implied probabilities can differ — sometimes by double digits — because of separate liquidity, user bases, and rules. W.E.T. aligns the two prices on the same outcome and surfaces the gap; that cross-venue divergence is a signal neither venue can show you on its own.
Each book is its own pool of traders. Thin liquidity, a different mix of participants, funding frictions (USD vs crypto), and slightly different contract rules all let the same event settle at different prices on each venue until arbitrage closes the gap.
Neither is universally "better" — they suit different traders. Kalshi fits US users who want a regulated, dollar-funded venue; Polymarket fits crypto-native users and offers deeper coverage in some categories. W.E.T. is neutral: we aggregate both books as data, take no bets, and hold no funds.
Explore W.E.T.
W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets, hold no funds, and route no orders. W.E.T. participates in the Kalshi and Polymarket referral programs and may earn a commission when you sign up through our links; this never influences our odds reporting. Implied probabilities are live market prices, not forecasts or advice. Prediction markets may be restricted in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+.