World Event Uncertainty Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-08-12 · settled 2026-08-12 20:05 UTC · 7 days of record
How uncertain the world is right now, priced — entropy across every category the desk watches.
Higher = the board is full of genuine coin-flips. Lower = the world is priced as largely decided, in either direction.
- 3,328 are priced from a single venue, so their consolidated price is that venue's price. Cross-venue consolidation only means something where more than one venue lists the question.
- Venue whitelist: polymarket — admitted by methodology beyond the CFTC-regulated default. The published reason is in the governance status below, not hidden behind a link.
- The track record is 7 days long. No accuracy or calibration claim is made, and none will be until the resolved-outcome corpus supports one.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-08-12 WET Close · settled 2026-08-12 20:05 UTCSame admission as WETGRI, for the same measured reason: the categories WETX spans are dominated by Polymarket Global listings, and a CFTC-only WETX would sample a small and unrepresentative corner of the world it claims to measure.
Recorded on every settlement row (this row: polymarket), so no reader has to take this page's word for which venues produced the number.
Why it moved
No attribution published. the 2026-08-11 settlement publishes 40 of 3286 rows in `constituents`, and a decomposition over part of a basket does not sum to the move it claims to explain
How WETX works
mirrors engine.uncertaintyGauge() · methodology v2.0How undecided the world is right now, priced. Not how bad things are — how far the board sits from settled, across politics, macro, elections, climate and financials.
U = 100 · Σ wᵢ H(pᵢ) / H_max, H(p) = −p·log₂p − (1−p)·log₂(1−p)
Normalised weighted entropy over capped liquidity weights. Entropy peaks at 50c and falls to zero at both ends, so a market at 3% and a market at 97% contribute the same near-nothing — both are decided, in opposite directions. That is deliberately NOT a mean of probabilities and cannot be assembled from the risk gauges. Severity is absent on purpose: uncertainty about a rate print is still uncertainty.
Higher means the board is full of genuine coin-flips. Lower means the world is priced as largely decided, whichever way it has been decided.
Scale: Decided → Uncertain
The markets behind it
40 linkable holdings · hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippageThe composition of the last settled close, turned into contracts you can open at the venue that lists each one — with a live level beside the settled print. WETX publishes 40 of the 3,328 constituents its 2026-08-12 level was computed over — the first 40 the settlement recorded, not a ranked selection, so these are not necessarily the largest. The remainder is real and priced but not written to the settlement row: a full daily roster at this width would be tens of megabytes a year. These holdings are a window on the index, not the index — figures computed from them alone would not reproduce the published level. Hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. never handles orders.
Open the WETX basket →Constituents · 3,328
the 25 highest-priced of the 40 this row publishes| Canonical event | Class | Venues | Rule | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 92.5% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 82.0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 81.0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 66.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 66.5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 63.5% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 53.3% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 42.5% |
| FED-FUNDS hike of 25bps at the 2026-09-16 decisionpolymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 32.5% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 31.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 30.5% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 27.7% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 25.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 17.5% |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 13.5% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 9.5% |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 8.5% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 7.3% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 7.1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 6.0% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 5.9% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 5.7% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 5.5% |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 4.9% |
| Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 4.0% |
15 further constituents are published on this settlement row but not tabled here. The row itself publishes 40 of the 3,328 constituents the value was computed from — a capped sample, because printing every id daily would run to tens of megabytes a year. The composition digest, and therefore the checksum, is taken over all 3,328 ids, so the chain still covers what the row does not print. Every row as published (JSON) →
Settlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
Quote it, cite it, check it
free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-08-12 WET Close, the World Event Uncertainty Index (WETX) prints 41.26, per World Event Trading.”
The checksum chains to the previous day, so anyone holding an earlier checksum can verify that history has not moved underneath them.
A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice.