World Event Uncertainty Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-10-01 · settled 2026-10-01 21:06 UTC · 43 days of record
How uncertain the world is right now, priced — entropy across every category the desk watches.
Higher = the board is full of genuine coin-flips. Lower = the world is priced as largely decided, in either direction.
- Every constituent is priced from one venue. All 4,079 are listed on a single venue, so each “consolidated” price is that venue's price and no cross-venue consolidation happens in this index today. Standardization still does real work here — it is what makes these questions comparable and admissible — but it is not correcting one venue against another, because there is no second venue quoting them.
- Venue whitelist: polymarket — admitted by methodology beyond the CFTC-regulated default. The published reason is in the governance status below, not hidden behind a link.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-10-01 WET Close · settled 2026-10-01 21:06 UTCSame admission as WETGRI, for the same measured reason: the categories WETX spans are dominated by Polymarket Global listings, and a CFTC-only WETX would sample a small and unrepresentative corner of the world it claims to measure.
Recorded on every settlement row (this row: polymarket), so no reader has to take this page's word for which venues produced the number.
Why it moved
No attribution published. the 2026-09-30 settlement publishes 40 of 4018 rows in `constituents`, and a decomposition over part of a basket does not sum to the move it claims to explain
How WETX works
mirrors engine.uncertaintyGauge() · methodology v2.0How undecided the world is right now, priced. Not how bad things are — how far the board sits from settled, across politics, macro, elections, climate and financials.
U = 100 · Σ wᵢ H(pᵢ) / H_max, H(p) = −p·log₂p − (1−p)·log₂(1−p)
Normalised weighted entropy over capped liquidity weights. Entropy peaks at 50c and falls to zero at both ends, so a market at 3% and a market at 97% contribute the same near-nothing — both are decided, in opposite directions. That is deliberately NOT a mean of probabilities and cannot be assembled from the risk gauges. Severity is absent on purpose: uncertainty about a rate print is still uncertainty.
Higher means the board is full of genuine coin-flips. Lower means the world is priced as largely decided, whichever way it has been decided.
Scale: Decided → Uncertain
The markets behind it
40 linkable holdings · hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippageThe composition of the last settled close, turned into contracts you can open at the venue that lists each one — with a live level beside the settled print. WETX publishes 40 of the 4,079 constituents its 2026-10-01 level was computed over — the first 40 the settlement recorded, not a ranked selection, so these are not necessarily the largest. The remainder is real and priced but not written to the settlement row: a full daily roster at this width would be tens of megabytes a year. These holdings are a window on the index, not the index — figures computed from them alone would not reproduce the published level. Hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. never handles orders.
Open the WETX basket →Constituents · 25 of 4,079
the 25 highest-priced of the 40 rows this settlement writes — the level itself was computed over 4,079| Canonical event | Class | Venues | Rule | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 95.9% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 92.5% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 87.8% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 68.9% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepolymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 63.5% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 61.6% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 47.3% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 45.5% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 42.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 37.5% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 32.5% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepolymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 28.5% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 23.5% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 19.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 14.5% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 14.5% |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 13.5% |
| Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 11.7% |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 10.1% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 7.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepolymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 7.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 6.5% |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 5.9% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 5.8% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?polymarket | — | polymarket | unclassified | 5.5% |
15 further constituents are published on this settlement row but not tabled here. The row itself publishes 40 of the 4,079 constituents the value was computed from — a capped sample, because printing every id daily would run to tens of megabytes a year. The composition digest, and therefore the checksum, is taken over all 4,079 ids, so the chain still covers what the row does not print. Every row as published (JSON) →
Settlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
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free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-10-01 WET Close, the World Event Uncertainty Index (WETX) prints 46.96, per World Event Trading.”
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