W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-08-12 · settled 2026-08-12 20:05 UTC · 7 days of record
A severity-weighted, cross-venue benchmark of the adverse geopolitical outcomes prediction markets are pricing.
Higher = more severity-weighted geopolitical risk priced across venues. Lower = calmer.
- 87 are priced from a single venue, so their consolidated price is that venue's price. Cross-venue consolidation only means something where more than one venue lists the question.
- Venue whitelist: polymarket — admitted by methodology beyond the CFTC-regulated default. The published reason is in the governance status below, not hidden behind a link.
- The track record is 7 days long. No accuracy or calibration claim is made, and none will be until the resolved-outcome corpus supports one.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-08-12 WET Close · settled 2026-08-12 20:05 UTCPolymarket Global is admitted by methodology. It is NOT a CFTC-regulated venue — it is an offshore, on-chain exchange — and it is the only venue listing geopolitical conflict contracts at any depth. The index would not exist without it. This is a published methodology decision, disclosed on every settlement row and on the index page, and is reviewable through the consultation process.
Recorded on every settlement row (this row: polymarket), so no reader has to take this page's word for which venues produced the number.
Why it moved
No attribution published. the severity-weighted gauge rebuilt from the stored constituents does not reproduce the 2026-08-11 level (published 110.65, rebuilt 105.2211); largest miss 15.6636 against a tolerance of 0.0060, so no decomposition of these prints is trustworthy
How WETGRI works
mirrors engine.riskGauge() · methodology v2.0How much severity-weighted geopolitical risk prediction markets are pricing right now — invasions, strikes, ceasefires that fail — read across every venue that lists the question rather than from one venue’s book.
R = 100 · Σ wᵢ sᵢ pᵢ / Σ wᵢ sᵢ
Each constituent contributes its consolidated cross-venue probability p, multiplied by a fixed severity multiplier s from the published rubric and a capped liquidity weight w. Severity sits in the numerator AND the denominator, which makes R a severity-weighted mean probability rather than a severity-weighted sum: a board of only-diplomatic markets all priced at 60% reads 60, not 12. De-escalation markets enter oriented 1−p at the severity of the conflict they would end, so a collapsing ceasefire raises the gauge with the full weight of the war it fails to stop.
Higher means more of the risk it watches is priced as likely. It is not a danger score for the world — it is a reading of what the market has put a price on, and it moves when prices move, not when the news gets louder.
Scale: Calm → Elevated
The markets behind it
87 linkable holdings · hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippageThe composition of the last settled close, turned into contracts you can open at the venue that lists each one — with a live level beside the settled print. Hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. never handles orders.
Open the WETGRI basket →Constituents · 87
the 25 largest by liquidity of the 87 this row publishes| Canonical event | Class | Venues | Rule | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| china invade taiwan — 3-leg term structure (by end of)act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b+horizon-family(3) | 3.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 17.5% |
| us iran final nuclear deal — 3-leg term structure (by)invnuclear · polymarket | nuclear | polymarket | nuclear:\bnuclear\b+de-escalation.agreement:<instrument>-<agreement>+horizon-family(3) | 88.0% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\bdeclare[sd]? war\b | 3.2% |
| israel x iran ceasefire continues — 4-leg term structure (through)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(4) | 33.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire | 79.5% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 5.5% |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement — 3-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(3) | 85.8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | act-military:\bstrikes? (on|against)\b | 19.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 9.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 81.5% |
| israeli forces withdraw from beyond litani river — 2-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.withdrawal:<force>-<withdrawn>+horizon-family(2) | 90.3% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+escalatory.reversal:<undo>-the-<resolution> | 7.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire | 89.5% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 82.5% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+escalatory.negation:no-<resolution> | 55.4% |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | act-military:\bblockade | 5.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 2.5% |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 3.5% |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\b(captures?|capture|seizes?|takes? cont | 3.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 94.8% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 84.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 91.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 3.0% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+escalatory.negation:no-<resolution> | 64.5% |
62 further constituents are published on this settlement row but not tabled here. None of them are excluded from the number. Every row as published (JSON) →
Settlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
Quote it, cite it, check it
free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-08-12 WET Close, the W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index (WETGRI) prints 109.67, per World Event Trading.”
The checksum chains to the previous day, so anyone holding an earlier checksum can verify that history has not moved underneath them.
A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice.