W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-11-14 · settled 2026-11-14 21:05 UTC · 92 days of record
A severity-weighted, cross-venue benchmark of the adverse geopolitical outcomes prediction markets are pricing.
Higher = more severity-weighted geopolitical risk priced across venues. Lower = calmer.
- Every constituent is priced from one venue. All 110 are listed on a single venue, so each “consolidated” price is that venue's price and no cross-venue consolidation happens in this index today. Standardization still does real work here — it is what makes these questions comparable and admissible — but it is not correcting one venue against another, because there is no second venue quoting them.
- Venue whitelist: polymarket — admitted by methodology beyond the CFTC-regulated default. The published reason is in the governance status below, not hidden behind a link.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-11-14 WET Close · settled 2026-11-14 21:05 UTCPolymarket Global is admitted by methodology. It is NOT a CFTC-regulated venue — it is an offshore, on-chain exchange — and it is the only venue listing geopolitical conflict contracts at any depth. The index would not exist without it. This is a published methodology decision, disclosed on every settlement row and on the index page, and is reviewable through the consultation process.
Recorded on every settlement row (this row: polymarket), so no reader has to take this page's word for which venues produced the number.
Why it moved
No attribution published. the severity-weighted gauge rebuilt from the stored constituents does not reproduce the 2026-11-13 level (published 110.46, rebuilt 107.5422); largest miss 3.6131 against a tolerance of 0.0060, so no decomposition of these prints is trustworthy
How WETGRI works
mirrors engine.riskGauge() · methodology v2.0How much severity-weighted geopolitical risk prediction markets are pricing right now — invasions, strikes, ceasefires that fail — read across every venue that lists the question rather than from one venue’s book.
R = 100 · Σ wᵢ sᵢ pᵢ / Σ wᵢ sᵢ
Each constituent contributes its consolidated cross-venue probability p, multiplied by a fixed severity multiplier s from the published rubric and a capped liquidity weight w. Severity sits in the numerator AND the denominator, which makes R a severity-weighted mean probability rather than a severity-weighted sum: a board of only-diplomatic markets all priced at 60% reads 60, not 12. De-escalation markets enter oriented 1−p at the severity of the conflict they would end, so a collapsing ceasefire raises the gauge with the full weight of the war it fails to stop.
Higher means more of the risk it watches is priced as likely. It is not a danger score for the world — it is a reading of what the market has put a price on, and it moves when prices move, not when the news gets louder.
Scale: Calm → Elevated
The markets behind it
110 linkable holdings · hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippageThe composition of the last settled close, turned into contracts you can open at the venue that lists each one — with a live level beside the settled print. Hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. never handles orders.
Open the WETGRI basket →Constituents · 25 of 110
the 25 largest by liquidity of the 110 this row publishes| Canonical event | Class | Venues | Rule | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 7.5% |
| israel x iran ceasefire continues — 6-leg term structure (through)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(6) | 31.5% |
| russia x ukraine energy ceasefire agreement — 2-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(2) | 77.5% |
| china invade taiwan — 2-leg term structure (by)act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b+horizon-family(2) | 3.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?invnuclear · polymarket | nuclear | polymarket | nuclear:\bnuclear\b+de-escalation.agreement:<instrument>-<agreement> | 92.5% |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire — 3-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(3) | 85.5% |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement — 14-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(14) | 76.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 2.4% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire | 78.5% |
| ukraine signs peace deal with russia — 3-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement>+horizon-family(3) | 89.5% |
| houthis capture taiz city — 2-leg term structure (by)act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\b(captures?|capture|seizes?|takes? cont+horizon-family(2) | 20.0% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+escalatory.negation:no-<resolution> | 3.0% |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 2.1% |
| zelenskyy and putin not meet — 2-leg term structure (before)act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+escalatory.negation:no-<resolution>+horizon-family(2) | 92.0% |
| us x iran effective ceasefire — 3-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:ceasefire+horizon-family(3) | 17.5% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | act-military:\bstrikes? (on|against)\b | 8.5% |
| Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 94.8% |
| Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 17.5% |
| russia x ukraine prisoner exchange — 2-leg term structure (by)invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.release:<people>-released+horizon-family(2) | 7.0% |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\bannex(es|ed|ation)?\b | 3.7% |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 12.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?act-war · polymarket | act-war | polymarket | act-war:\binvad(e|es|ing|ed)\b | 2.8% |
| russia military action against eu country — 2-leg term structure (by)act-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | act-military:\bmilitary (action|operation|interventio+horizon-family(2) | 6.3% |
| Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?diplomatic · polymarket | diplomatic | polymarket | diplomatic:\btreaty\b | 6.5% |
| Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?invact-military · polymarket | act-military | polymarket | conflict-resolution:default+de-escalation.cessation:peace-<agreement> | 89.0% |
85 further constituents are published on this settlement row but not tabled here. None of them are excluded from the number. Every row as published (JSON) →
Settlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
Quote it, cite it, check it
free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-11-14 WET Close, the W.E.T. Geopolitical Risk Index (WETGRI) prints 109.62, per World Event Trading.”
The checksum chains to the previous day, so anyone holding an earlier checksum can verify that history has not moved underneath them.
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