W.E.T. Fragmentation Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-08-12 · settled 2026-08-12 20:05 UTC · 6 days of record
How far apart the venues are on the same question — the 5c(c) problem, indexed.
Higher = venues disagree more on identical questions. Lower = the market is converging on one price.
- 6 of 11 constituents are provisional — admitted by the published rules, not yet confirmed through human review.
- Venue whitelist: polymarket — admitted by methodology beyond the CFTC-regulated default. The published reason is in the governance status below, not hidden behind a link.
- The track record is 6 days long. No accuracy or calibration claim is made, and none will be until the resolved-outcome corpus supports one.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-08-12 WET Close · settled 2026-08-12 20:05 UTCFragmentation is measured BETWEEN venues, so excluding the venue that lists most of the questions would not make the index purer — it would make it impossible. Every constituent here is by construction multi-venue.
Recorded on every settlement row (this row: polymarket), so no reader has to take this page's word for which venues produced the number.
Why it moved
No attribution published. WETFRAG is a mean of per-constituent cross-venue price dispersion, and the settlement rows publish each constituent’s consolidated probability but not its dispersion — the quantity the level is a mean of is absent from the ledger, so the move cannot be decomposed from published data
How WETFRAG works
mirrors engine — mean of consolidated dispersion · methodology v2.0How far apart venues are on the same question — the fragmentation that makes a single venue’s price an incomplete answer, indexed.
F = 100 · (1/n) · Σ (max_v pᵢ,v − min_v pᵢ,v)
The mean cross-venue price gap: for each constituent, the widest venue mid minus the narrowest, averaged equally across constituents and scaled ×100 so a 5-point average gap reads 5.00. Every constituent must be genuinely multi-venue — a single-venue question has no gap to measure, and admitting it at zero would drag the index toward zero for exactly the reason it should be excluded. Equal-weighted on purpose: the question is how far apart venues are on a typical question, so the deepest handful must not speak for the rest.
Higher means venues disagree more on identical questions. Lower means the market is converging on one price. A rising reading is where cross-venue consolidation earns its keep.
Scale: Converged → Fragmented
The markets behind it
11 linkable holdings · hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippageThe composition of the last settled close, turned into contracts you can open at the venue that lists each one — with a live level beside the settled print. Hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. never handles orders.
Open the WETFRAG basket →Constituents · 11
consolidated probability · venues · severity class| Canonical event | Class | Venues | Rule | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC ≥ $60,000 on 2026-08-14kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 98.1% |
| BTC ≥ $62,000 on 2026-08-14kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 88.3% |
| ETH ≥ $1,900 on 2026-08-14kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 34.8% |
| BTC ≥ $64,000 on 2026-08-14kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 30.8% |
| ETH ≥ $3,500 on 2027-01-01kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 11.0% |
| ETH ≥ $4,000 on 2027-01-01kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 7.0% |
| ETH ≥ $4,500 on 2027-01-01kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 5.5% |
| ETH ≥ $5,000 on 2027-01-01kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 4.0% |
| BTC ≥ $66,000 on 2026-08-14kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 3.6% |
| ETH ≥ $6,000 on 2027-01-01kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 3.3% |
| BTC ≥ $68,000 on 2026-08-14kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 1.3% |
Settlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
Quote it, cite it, check it
free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-08-12 WET Close, the W.E.T. Fragmentation Index (WETFRAG) prints 1.30, per World Event Trading.”
The checksum chains to the previous day, so anyone holding an earlier checksum can verify that history has not moved underneath them.
A benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice.