W.E.T. Fragmentation Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-09-22 · settled 2026-09-22 21:05 UTC · 38 days of record
How far apart the venues are on the same question — the 5c(c) problem, indexed.
Higher = venues disagree more on identical questions. Lower = the market is converging on one price.
- 53 of 53 constituents are provisional — admitted by the published rules, not yet confirmed through human review.
- Venue whitelist: polymarket — admitted by methodology beyond the CFTC-regulated default. The published reason is in the governance status below, not hidden behind a link.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-09-22 WET Close · settled 2026-09-22 21:05 UTCFragmentation is measured BETWEEN venues, so excluding the venue that lists most of the questions would not make the index purer — it would make it impossible. Every constituent here is by construction multi-venue.
Recorded on every settlement row (this row: polymarket), so no reader has to take this page's word for which venues produced the number.
Why it moved
No attribution published. WETFRAG is a mean of per-constituent cross-venue price dispersion, and the settlement rows publish each constituent’s consolidated probability but not its dispersion — the quantity the level is a mean of is absent from the ledger, so the move cannot be decomposed from published data
How WETFRAG works
mirrors engine — mean of consolidated dispersion · methodology v2.0How far apart venues are on the same question — the fragmentation that makes a single venue’s price an incomplete answer, indexed.
F = 100 · (1/n) · Σ (max_v pᵢ,v − min_v pᵢ,v)
The mean cross-venue price gap: for each constituent, the widest venue mid minus the narrowest, averaged equally across constituents and scaled ×100 so a 5-point average gap reads 5.00. Every constituent must be genuinely multi-venue — a single-venue question has no gap to measure, and admitting it at zero would drag the index toward zero for exactly the reason it should be excluded. Equal-weighted on purpose: the question is how far apart venues are on a typical question, so the deepest handful must not speak for the rest.
Higher means venues disagree more on identical questions. Lower means the market is converging on one price. A rising reading is where cross-venue consolidation earns its keep.
Scale: Converged → Fragmented
The markets behind it
40 linkable holdings · hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippageThe composition of the last settled close, turned into contracts you can open at the venue that lists each one — with a live level beside the settled print. WETFRAG publishes 40 of the 53 constituents its 2026-09-22 level was computed over — the first 40 the settlement recorded, not a ranked selection, so these are not necessarily the largest. The remainder is real and priced but not written to the settlement row: a full daily roster at this width would be tens of megabytes a year. These holdings are a window on the index, not the index — figures computed from them alone would not reproduce the published level. Hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage. W.E.T. never handles orders.
Open the WETFRAG basket →Constituents · 25 of 53
the 25 highest-priced of the 40 rows this settlement writes — the level itself was computed over 53| Canonical event | Class | Venues | Rule | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ≥ $2,500 on 2026-09-25kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 97.7% |
| BTC ≥ $80,000 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 97.6% |
| BTC ≥ $80,500 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 96.7% |
| BTC ≥ $81,000 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 96.3% |
| BTC ≥ $81,500 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 95.0% |
| XRP ≥ $1.4 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 94.8% |
| XRP ≥ $1.42 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 93.6% |
| BTC ≥ $82,000 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 93.4% |
| XRP ≥ $1.44 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 90.6% |
| ETH ≥ $2,600 on 2026-09-25gemini + polymarket | — | gemini + polymarket | unclassified | 90.5% |
| BTC ≥ $82,500 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 89.6% |
| SOL ≥ $110 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 89.0% |
| BTC ≥ $83,000 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 88.3% |
| BTC ≥ $83,500 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 85.0% |
| XRP ≥ $1.48 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 81.6% |
| BTC ≥ $84,000 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 79.7% |
| XRP ≥ $1.5 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 76.6% |
| BTC ≥ $84,500 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 74.7% |
| XRP ≥ $1.52 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 69.5% |
| BTC ≥ $85,000 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 68.7% |
| SOL ≥ $115 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi + polymarket | — | gemini + kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 67.0% |
| ETH ≥ $2,700 on 2026-09-25kalshi + polymarket | — | kalshi + polymarket | unclassified | 66.7% |
| XRP ≥ $1.54 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 62.6% |
| BTC ≥ $85,500 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 62.0% |
| XRP ≥ $1.56 on 2026-09-25gemini + kalshi | — | gemini + kalshi | unclassified | 54.5% |
15 further constituents are published on this settlement row but not tabled here. The row itself publishes 40 of the 53 constituents the value was computed from — a capped sample, because printing every id daily would run to tens of megabytes a year. The composition digest, and therefore the checksum, is taken over all 53 ids, so the chain still covers what the row does not print. Every row as published (JSON) →
Settlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
Quote it, cite it, check it
free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-09-22 WET Close, the W.E.T. Fragmentation Index (WETFRAG) prints 1.33, per World Event Trading.”
The checksum chains to the previous day, so anyone holding an earlier checksum can verify that history has not moved underneath them.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">WETFRAG via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/wetfrag?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=wetfrag">World Event Trading</a></p>oEmbed-aware editors expand this into the card automatically, attribution included.
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https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/oembed/benchmark?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldeventtrading.com%2Findices%2Fwetfrag&format=jsonA benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice.