W.E.T. Fed Path Index
methodology v2.0WET Close 2026-09-21 · settled 2026-09-21 21:06 UTC · 24 days of record
The constant-horizon policy-rate expectation implied by Fed-meeting contracts, in basis points.
Negative = easing priced over the horizon. Positive = tightening. Zero = on hold.
- The independent committee seat is currently vacant, so the administrator is the sole decision-maker on methodology changes. Stated here rather than omitted.
Governance status
as of the 2026-09-21 WET Close · settled 2026-09-21 21:06 UTCWhy it moved
No attribution published. the meeting ladder on one of the two settlements is missing or is not a running sum of its per-meeting expectations, so the constant-maturity blend cannot be re-derived
How WETFED works
mirrors engine.constantMaturity() · methodology v2.0How much policy-rate change is priced in over a fixed forward horizon — in basis points, a real unit, not a 0–100 score.
E[Δrate] = Σ p̂ᵢ · bpsᵢ, p̂ᵢ = pᵢ / Σp → V(182d) = V_a·(1−t) + V_b·t
For each Fed meeting the venue lists a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive strip of outcomes. Their mids are normalised to sum to one — which removes the book’s overround — and weighted by the basis points each outcome implies. Meeting expectations chain into a cumulative path, and the headline is that path interpolated to a constant 182-day horizon: the CBOE VIX construction applied to event-contract cycles, which is why the series never expires and never gaps on a roll. It does not extrapolate past the furthest listed cycle; beyond the back of the curve it reports the back cycle’s value.
Negative means easing is priced over the horizon, positive means tightening, zero means on hold. The meeting ladder below shows the shape of the path, not only its 182-day summary.
Scale: Easing priced → Tightening priced · published in basis points
The markets behind it
no constituent basket by constructionNo executable basket exists for WETFED. WETFED has no constituent basket. It is a constant-maturity blend over the Fed meeting ladder — 11 meetings interpolated to a fixed 182-day horizon — so there are no contracts to hold, no weights to publish and nothing to link. The ladder itself is published in place of holdings. The meeting ladder below is its real composition — that honest state is the answer, not a synthesised roster that would look right and be wrong.
Meeting ladder
the path behind the 182-day blend · basis pointsSettlement provenance
what produced this exact printFNV-1a over slug|date|value(6dp)|divisor(9dp)|compositionDigest|previousChecksum. Recomputable from the published rows alone, in any language — which is what makes “verified” above a result rather than a claim.
Quote it, cite it, check it
free to quote with attribution + the as-of date“As of the 2026-09-21 WET Close, the W.E.T. Fed Path Index (WETFED) prints +64.8bps, per World Event Trading.”
The checksum chains to the previous day, so anyone holding an earlier checksum can verify that history has not moved underneath them.
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<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/benchmark/wetfed" width="420" height="215" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="WETFED — W.E.T. Fed Path Index, a governed benchmark by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">WETFED via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/wetfed?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=wetfed">World Event Trading</a></p>oEmbed-aware editors expand this into the card automatically, attribution included.
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https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/oembed/benchmark?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldeventtrading.com%2Findices%2Fwetfed&format=jsonA benchmark reading of prediction-market prices — not a W.E.T. forecast, not advice, and never a performance claim. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice.