Storm Watch — the basket

Level

1000.00

Since inception

0.00%

1 day

—

7 day

—

Markets held

36

Settled

0

Hit rate

—

Cash

0%

Inception

2026-08-01

Weighting

Equal notional

Marks

Two-sided mid

Days tracked

1

The same markets priced multiplicatively: what one position that needs every leg to resolve YES is worth. Combo is the venues' own term — Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini all ship it under that name, and Kalshi's API defines it exactly this way: the market resolves YES only if every associated market resolves YES. The basket above is the opposite instrument — a mean, where one loss doesn't zero you.

Multiplying legs assumes they are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they are in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required. W.E.T. does not offer, accept or route orders for this or any instrument — it is a price display, and each leg links to its venue above. Data, not advice.

Where this can actually be placed: Kalshi lists combos as multivariate event collections, but a combo market is only created on demand by an authenticated request, so no public price exists to quote. Polymarket runs combos through a request-for-quote auction — the eligible legs are public, the executable combo price is not. Gemini's combo endpoint is public and would expose a real orderbook price, but has no live inventory yet. So the figures above are computed by W.E.T. from single-leg quotes, and are not a quote from any venue.

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.