Senate — Elections, inside six months — the basket
SlateExperimentalStandingThe real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1015.97
- Since inception
- +1.60%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 31.9% of 69
- 1 day
- +0.56%
- 7 day
- +0.81%
- Markets held
- 69
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 49.2%
- Inception
- 2026-08-25
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 12
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 69 markets
held since 2026-08-25 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50cpolymarketYES50c53c+6.1%15.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 48c1.0¢ spread · 55.6k/62.5k within 5¢polymarketYES48c52c+8.4%15.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepolymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c13c+8.7%15.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50c1.0¢ spread · 27.8k/94.7k within 5¢polymarketYES50c49c−2.0%11.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 39cpolymarketYES39c36c−7.8%8.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 31c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES31c30c−3.3%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 3c1.5¢ spread · 24.3k/3.4k within 5¢polymarketYES3c2c−28.3%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 70c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES70c69c−0.7%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Republican Partygemini · YES · entry 52c2 sessions stalegeminiYES52c52c0.0%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Montana US Senate Winner — Kurt Almegemini · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stalegeminiYES91c91c0.0%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 16.5k/8.5k within 5¢polymarketYES61c64c+4.1%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Georgia US Senate Winner — Mike Collinsgemini · YES · entry 9c2 sessions stalegeminiYES9c8c−11.8%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Democratic Partygemini · YES · entry 49c2 sessions stalegeminiYES49c49c0.0%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Georgia US Senate Winner — Jon Ossoffgemini · YES · entry 92c2 sessions stalegeminiYES92c94c+2.2%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Michigan US Senate Winner — Abdul El-Sayedgemini · YES · entry 57c2 sessions stalegeminiYES57c63c+8.7%1.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Montana US Senate Winner — Kyle Austingemini · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Michigan US Senate Winner — Mike Rogersgemini · YES · entry 40c2 sessions stalegeminiYES40c38c−5.1%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 40cpolymarketYES40c34c−13.9%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Minnesota US Senate Winner — Michele Tafoyagemini · YES · entry 11c2 sessions stalegeminiYES11c8c−23.8%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Texas US Senate Winner — Ken Paxtongemini · YES · entry 52cgeminiYES52c53c+1.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c12c0.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Alaska US Senate Winner — Dan Sullivangemini · YES · entry 49c2 sessions stalegeminiYES49c36c−26.8%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Alaska US Senate Winner — Mary Peltolagemini · YES · entry 62c2 sessions stalegeminiYES62c65c+4.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Montana US Senate Winner — Seth Bodnargemini · YES · entry 10c2 sessions stalegeminiYES10c10c0.0%0.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 43cpolymarketYES43c45c+3.5%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c+2.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- New Jersey US Senate Winner — Justin Murphygemini · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalegeminiYES2c3c+25.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- South Dakota US Senate Winner — Julian Beaudiongemini · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- North Carolina US Senate Winner — Michael Whatleygemini · YES · entry 9c2 sessions stalegeminiYES9c10c+11.8%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Kentucky US Senate Winner — Charles Bookergemini · YES · entry 6c2 sessions stalegeminiYES6c6c0.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 39cpolymarketYES39c37c−3.9%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c10c+127.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 84cpolymarketYES84c80c−5.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c63c−7.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c4c+81.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Arkansas US Senate Winner — Hallie Shoffnergemini · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalegeminiYES5c5c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Massachusetts US Senate Winner — John Deatongemini · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalegeminiYES5c5c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Oregon US Senate Winner — Jeff Merkleygemini · YES · entry 98cgeminiYES98c99c+0.5%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Texas US Senate Winner — James Talaricogemini · YES · entry 50cgeminiYES50c50c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c24c+336.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 66cpolymarketYES66c58c−12.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Idaho US Senate Winner — David Rothgemini · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- North Carolina US Senate Winner — Shannon Braygemini · YES · entry 5c7 sessions stalegeminiYES5c6c+20.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Massachusetts US Senate Winner — Joseph Tachegemini · YES · entry 5c8 sessions stalegeminiYES5c6c+22.2%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c0.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Minnesota US Senate Winner — Peggy Flanagangemini · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stalegeminiYES91c93c+2.2%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Illinois US Senate Winner — Don Tracygemini · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalegeminiYES3c4c+16.7%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Louisiana US Senate Winner — Jamie Davisgemini · YES · entry 7c2 sessions stalegeminiYES7c8c+7.1%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Mississippi US Senate Winner — Cindy Hyde-Smithgemini · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalegeminiYES93c94c+0.5%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Mississippi US Senate Winner — Scott Colomgemini · YES · entry 9c2 sessions stalegeminiYES9c6c−29.4%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 69 constituents by weight.
All markets resolve YES · 5 of 69
a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhereThe chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.
The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.
Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.
This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.
How to read this
The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.
This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.