WSENA

Senate — Elections, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print66 held · close 2026-11-05

1109.58+10.96%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 1109.58
Since inception: +10.96%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 5.8% of 66
1 day: +0.38%
7 day: +10.03%
Markets held: 66
Settled: 3
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 75.2%
Inception: 2026-08-25
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 47

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 66 markets

held since 2026-08-25 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepolymarket · YES · entry 12c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c6c−52.2%15.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50c3 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 33.7k/169.5k within 5¢polymarketYES50c28c−42.4%11.6%Polymarket ↗
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 39c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES39c23c−41.6%8.8%Polymarket ↗
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 31c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES31c27c−13.1%4.1%Polymarket ↗
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 3c3 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 27.1k/4.9k within 5¢polymarketYES3c2c−41.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Republican Partygemini · YES · entry 52c13 sessions stalegeminiYES52c35c−32.0%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
Montana US Senate Winner — Kurt Almegemini · YES · entry 91c33 sessions stalegeminiYES91c91c0.0%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 45.2k/37.1k within 5¢polymarketYES61c95c+55.7%1.3%Polymarket ↗
Georgia US Senate Winner — Mike Collinsgemini · YES · entry 9c33 sessions stalegeminiYES9c8c−11.8%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Democratic Partygemini · YES · entry 49c13 sessions stalegeminiYES49c65c+34.0%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Georgia US Senate Winner — Jon Ossoffgemini · YES · entry 92c33 sessions stalegeminiYES92c94c+2.2%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Michigan US Senate Winner — Abdul El-Sayedgemini · YES · entry 57c5 sessions stalegeminiYES57c76c+31.3%1.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
Montana US Senate Winner — Kyle Austingemini · YES · entry 3c33 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
Michigan US Senate Winner — Mike Rogersgemini · YES · entry 40c33 sessions stalegeminiYES40c38c−5.1%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 40c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES40c38c−5.1%0.9%Polymarket ↗
Minnesota US Senate Winner — Michele Tafoyagemini · YES · entry 11c33 sessions stalegeminiYES11c10c−9.5%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
Texas US Senate Winner — Ken Paxtongemini · YES · entry 52c33 sessions stalegeminiYES52c53c+1.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 12c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c4c−66.5%0.8%Polymarket ↗
Alaska US Senate Winner — Dan Sullivangemini · YES · entry 49c33 sessions stalegeminiYES49c38c−22.7%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
Alaska US Senate Winner — Mary Peltolagemini · YES · entry 62c33 sessions stalegeminiYES62c65c+4.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
Montana US Senate Winner — Seth Bodnargemini · YES · entry 10c33 sessions stalegeminiYES10c10c0.0%0.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 43c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES43c34c−20.9%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 5c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c14c+177.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
New Jersey US Senate Winner — Justin Murphygemini · YES · entry 2c33 sessions stalegeminiYES2c3c+25.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
South Dakota US Senate Winner — Julian Beaudiongemini · YES · entry 3c33 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
North Carolina US Senate Winner — Michael Whatleygemini · YES · entry 9c37 sessions stalegeminiYES9c10c+11.8%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
Kentucky US Senate Winner — Charles Bookergemini · YES · entry 6c33 sessions stalegeminiYES6c5c−9.1%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 39c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES39c28c−28.6%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 5c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c50c+1012.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 84c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES84c63c−25.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 68c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES68c79c+16.3%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 2c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c3c+10.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Arkansas US Senate Winner — Hallie Shoffnergemini · YES · entry 5c33 sessions stalegeminiYES5c5c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Massachusetts US Senate Winner — John Deatongemini · YES · entry 5c33 sessions stalegeminiYES5c5c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Oregon US Senate Winner — Jeff Merkleygemini · YES · entry 98c33 sessions stalegeminiYES98c99c+0.5%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Texas US Senate Winner — James Talaricogemini · YES · entry 50c33 sessions stalegeminiYES50c49c−1.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 6c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c30c+436.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 66c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES66c65c−1.5%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Idaho US Senate Winner — David Rothgemini · YES · entry 3c33 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
North Carolina US Senate Winner — Shannon Braygemini · YES · entry 5c33 sessions stalegeminiYES5c4c−30.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Massachusetts US Senate Winner — Joseph Tachegemini · YES · entry 5c33 sessions stalegeminiYES5c4c−22.2%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 3c24 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c4c+12.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Minnesota US Senate Winner — Peggy Flanagangemini · YES · entry 91c33 sessions stalegeminiYES91c91c−0.5%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Illinois US Senate Winner — Don Tracygemini · YES · entry 3c33 sessions stalegeminiYES3c4c+33.3%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Louisiana US Senate Winner — Jamie Davisgemini · YES · entry 7c33 sessions stalegeminiYES7c7c−7.1%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Mississippi US Senate Winner — Cindy Hyde-Smithgemini · YES · entry 93c33 sessions stalegeminiYES93c95c+2.2%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Mississippi US Senate Winner — Scott Colomgemini · YES · entry 9c33 sessions stalegeminiYES9c6c−29.4%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
North Carolina US Senate Winner — Roy Coopergemini · YES · entry 92c33 sessions stalegeminiYES92c92c−0.5%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
New Mexico US Senate Winner — Ben Ray Lujangemini · YES · entry 96c33 sessions stalegeminiYES96c98c+2.1%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Oregon US Senate Winner — David Brock Smithgemini · YES · entry 3c33 sessions stalegeminiYES3c4c+40.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 66 constituents by weight.

Settled · 3

graded outcomes — the basket's realized record

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?yes+102.0%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Houseyes+110.5%

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?yes+43.9%

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 66

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent

90.39%

Π of the individual probabilities

True range · any correlation

90.0–97.5%

Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 7.5pp wide

YESOregon US Senate Winner — Jeff Merkley99%

YESNew Jersey US Senate Winner — Cory Booker99%

YESNew Mexico US Senate Winner — Ben Ray Lujan98%

YESIdaho US Senate Winner — Jim Risch98%

YESIllinois US Senate Winner — Juliana Stratton98%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.