Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 behind
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
WSENA
W.E.T. Senate Elections Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingNo reading published for 2026-09-22
The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
—
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
Coverage
3 of 3 admitted markets pricedκ 1.0000 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel
32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
What would make this reading wrong
- The "senate" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 20, severity frames 0 of 20, threshold frames 0 of 20), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (9)
- 3 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
- 3 of 3 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.333333. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 3 constituents (cap·n = 0.4500 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 3. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 9283, category-not-admitted 2, horizon-unknown 30, horizon-outside-window 85. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 85 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 30 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9283 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - orientation: the declared `polarity` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 3 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared polarity axis frames 0 of 3 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `polarity` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 61439ade4ace5cd2 · methodology e42a6db81c70c160 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
No value publishedfor 2026-09-22§2.6 rung 2
3 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
Last published reading: 68.57 on 2026-09-21. It is not carried forward.
7 elections markets carrying the "senate" axis across polymarket, gemini, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
Basket level · official print69 held · close 2026-09-28
1000.51+0.05%since inception · base 1000
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1000.51
- Since inception
- +0.05%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 29.0% of 69
- 1 day
- −0.31%
- 7 day
- −0.23%
- Markets held
- 69
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 50.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-25
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 28
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 69 markets
held since 2026-08-25 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differsMarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50cpolymarketYES50c63c+26.3%15.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 48c1.0¢ spread · 111.2k/74.5k within 5¢polymarketYES48c61c+27.4%15.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepolymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c8c−34.8%15.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 50c1.0¢ spread · 33.7k/169.5k within 5¢polymarketYES50c38c−24.2%11.6%Polymarket ↗
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 39cpolymarketYES39c31c−20.8%8.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 31cpolymarketYES31c31c0.0%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 3c0.1¢ spread · 27.1k/4.9k within 5¢polymarketYES3c2c−35.0%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 70cpolymarketYES70c70c0.0%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Republican Partygemini · YES · entry 52cgeminiYES52c37c−29.1%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Montana US Senate Winner — Kurt Almegemini · YES · entry 91c14 sessions stalegeminiYES91c91c0.0%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 45.2k/37.1k within 5¢polymarketYES61c73c+18.9%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Georgia US Senate Winner — Mike Collinsgemini · YES · entry 9c14 sessions stalegeminiYES9c8c−11.8%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Democratic Partygemini · YES · entry 49cgeminiYES49c63c+28.9%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Georgia US Senate Winner — Jon Ossoffgemini · YES · entry 92c14 sessions stalegeminiYES92c94c+2.2%1.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Michigan US Senate Winner — Abdul El-Sayedgemini · YES · entry 57c14 sessions stalegeminiYES57c62c+7.0%1.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Montana US Senate Winner — Kyle Austingemini · YES · entry 3c14 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Michigan US Senate Winner — Mike Rogersgemini · YES · entry 40c14 sessions stalegeminiYES40c38c−5.1%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 40c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES40c38c−5.1%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Minnesota US Senate Winner — Michele Tafoyagemini · YES · entry 11c14 sessions stalegeminiYES11c10c−9.5%0.9%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Texas US Senate Winner — Ken Paxtongemini · YES · entry 52c14 sessions stalegeminiYES52c53c+1.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c13c+8.7%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Alaska US Senate Winner — Dan Sullivangemini · YES · entry 49c14 sessions stalegeminiYES49c38c−22.7%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Alaska US Senate Winner — Mary Peltolagemini · YES · entry 62c14 sessions stalegeminiYES62c65c+4.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Montana US Senate Winner — Seth Bodnargemini · YES · entry 10c14 sessions stalegeminiYES10c10c0.0%0.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 43c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES43c34c−20.9%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Brian Schatz be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c14c+177.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- New Jersey US Senate Winner — Justin Murphygemini · YES · entry 2c14 sessions stalegeminiYES2c3c+25.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- South Dakota US Senate Winner — Julian Beaudiongemini · YES · entry 3c14 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- North Carolina US Senate Winner — Michael Whatleygemini · YES · entry 9c18 sessions stalegeminiYES9c10c+11.8%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Kentucky US Senate Winner — Charles Bookergemini · YES · entry 6c14 sessions stalegeminiYES6c5c−9.1%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 39cpolymarketYES39c28c−26.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c12c+168.9%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 84cpolymarketYES84c76c−9.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c63c−7.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c4c+72.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Arkansas US Senate Winner — Hallie Shoffnergemini · YES · entry 5c14 sessions stalegeminiYES5c5c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Massachusetts US Senate Winner — John Deatongemini · YES · entry 5c14 sessions stalegeminiYES5c5c0.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Oregon US Senate Winner — Jeff Merkleygemini · YES · entry 98c14 sessions stalegeminiYES98c99c+0.5%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Texas US Senate Winner — James Talaricogemini · YES · entry 50c14 sessions stalegeminiYES50c49c−1.0%0.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c26c+363.6%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 66cpolymarketYES66c47c−28.8%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Idaho US Senate Winner — David Rothgemini · YES · entry 3c14 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- North Carolina US Senate Winner — Shannon Braygemini · YES · entry 5c14 sessions stalegeminiYES5c4c−30.0%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Massachusetts US Senate Winner — Joseph Tachegemini · YES · entry 5c14 sessions stalegeminiYES5c4c−22.2%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?polymarket · YES · entry 3c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c4c+12.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
- Minnesota US Senate Winner — Peggy Flanagangemini · YES · entry 91c14 sessions stalegeminiYES91c91c−0.5%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Illinois US Senate Winner — Don Tracygemini · YES · entry 3c14 sessions stalegeminiYES3c4c+33.3%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Louisiana US Senate Winner — Jamie Davisgemini · YES · entry 7c14 sessions stalegeminiYES7c7c−7.1%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Mississippi US Senate Winner — Cindy Hyde-Smithgemini · YES · entry 93c14 sessions stalegeminiYES93c95c+2.2%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Mississippi US Senate Winner — Scott Colomgemini · YES · entry 9c14 sessions stalegeminiYES9c6c−29.4%0.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 69 constituents by weight. See the full book →
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedunclassified100% · 3
Constituents by weight
all 3 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setpolymarket:1060867Polymarket3% · 33.4%
polymarket:562793Polymarket65% · 33.3%
polymarket:562794Polymarket36% · 33.3%
Where these markets are covered
2 of 3 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WSENA · at a glance
- What it is
- 7 elections markets carrying the "senate" axis across polymarket, gemini, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how senate is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Senate Elections Index 6mo (WSENA) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.