The Index Desk Report
LATESTSunday, August 30, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
18.5Very low
99 / 128 live28 elevated42 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 18.5 (Very low), down 0.5.
Fell 0.5 to 18.5 (Very low), led by climate-risk (15% leg) (34→32%) −0.3 repricing; geopolitical-risk (40% leg) −0.1 repricing; commodity-stress (20% leg) −0.1 repricing.
The board: 99 of 128 benchmarks live — 28 elevated (≥60), 42 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Inflation (WIIN): Aug 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.31% (80% band 3.15–3.43%, n=26 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WAWD 42.6 (▼2.0) — Fell 2.0 to 42.6 (Moderate), led by Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP… (38→16%) −1.3 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (66→65%) +0.5 repricing; Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? (87→88%) −0.2 repricing.
- WCDR 32.3 (▼1.9) — Fell 1.9 to 32.3 (Low), led by Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (49→45%) −0.9 repricing; 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? −0.1 repricing; Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the… (15→14%) −0.1 repricing.
- WDCW 29.1 (▼0.9) — Fell 0.9 to 29.1 (Low), led by Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (55→52%) −0.8 repricing; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31,… (9→8%) −0.2 repricing; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (42→39%) −0.3 repricing.
- WFLA 31.0 (▼0.8) — Fell 0.8 to 31.0 (Low), led by US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (42→39%) −0.4 repricing; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? (2→1%) −0.1 repricing; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31,… +0.0 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
- WEHI 47.5 (▲0.6) — Rose 0.5 to 47.5 (Moderate), led by Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… (74→72%) +0.8 repricing; Will the Democratic Party control the House after t… (89→90%) −0.3 repricing; Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential… +0.0 repricing, −0.1 reweight.
Projection watch
- WSTW projected 5.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WSHI projected 20.8 in 14d (80% band 0–99), trending down.
- WINC3 projected 15.5 in 14d (80% band 0–58), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 16.6 | -0.2 | 2026-08-30 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 6.3 | — | 2026-08-30 | Very low & cooling |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 47.5 | +0.6 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 51.1 | +0.3 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 24.2 | 0.0 | 2026-08-30 | Low & climbing |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.1 | 0.0 | 2026-08-30 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 32.3 | -1.9 | 2026-08-30 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 36.7 | -0.5 | 2026-08-30 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 27.4 | +0.5 | 2026-08-30 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 5.0 | -0.3 | 2026-08-30 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 30.7 | — | 2026-08-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 51.7 | 0.0 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & steady |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 55.8 | -0.2 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & steady |
| WELW | Election Week | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-25 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 31.0 | -0.8 | 2026-08-30 | Low & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 29.1 | -0.9 | 2026-08-30 | Low & cooling |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.7 | 0.0 | 2026-08-30 | Low & steady |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 54.6 | -0.5 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 72.2 | — | 2026-08-12 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 8.8 | 0.0 | 2026-08-30 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 26.8 | -0.2 | 2026-08-30 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 42.6 | -2.0 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.4 | — | 2026-08-09 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | 2026-08-05 | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 33.5 | — | 2026-08-08 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 58.6 | 0.0 | 2026-08-30 | Moderate & climbing |
| WWRI | World Risk | 18.5 | -0.5 | 2026-08-30 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 13.0 | — | 2026-08-30 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 30.7 | +0.3 | 2026-08-30 | Low & climbing |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 29.6 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 70.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 66.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 47.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 51.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 33.1 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 66.9 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 58.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 41.3 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 58.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 47.1 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling |
| WCHIC | Chicago Football, inside six months | 17.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Very low & cooling |
| WCHI2 | Inverse Chicago Football, inside six months | 83.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Very high & climbing |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 52.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 37.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling |
| WDALL | Dallas Football, inside six months | 26.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WDAL2 | Inverse Dallas Football, inside six months | 73.3 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 27.9 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 72.1 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 17.6 | — | 2026-08-29 | Very low & climbing |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 82.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Very high & cooling |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 39.6 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WELE2 | Election — Politics, inside two months | 53.2 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 44.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 56.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 26.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 73.2 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 32.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 67.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 45.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 55.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 20.1 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 79.9 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 25.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 74.6 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 72.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 53.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & steady |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 31.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & steady |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 68.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & steady |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 21.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 79.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WLOSA | Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 33.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing |
| WLOS2 | Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 66.3 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 65.9 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 75.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WMEE3 | Meeting — Economics, inside two years | 44.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WMIDT | Midterm — Elections, inside six months | 54.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WNEWE | New England Football, inside six months | 29.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNEW2 | Inverse New England Football, inside six months | 70.3 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 44.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 45.2 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling |
| WPARL | Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months | 52.3 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 24.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & steady |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 75.5 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & steady |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 39.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling |
| WRACE | Race — Elections, inside six months | 76.2 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 60.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 40.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 75.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 72.1 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 60.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 45.1 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 22.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 78.0 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 26.7 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & steady |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 73.3 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & steady |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 55.8 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WSEA2 | Seattle Football, inside six months | 28.6 | — | 2026-08-29 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WSEA3 | Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months | 71.4 | — | 2026-08-29 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 41.9 | — | 2026-08-29 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.