The Index Desk Report
Friday, August 21, 2026
The desk's daily brief — every WET Index Score, what moved it, and the projection watch. Composed arithmetically from the audited daily prints; published every morning. Subscribe via RSS.
Headline · WWRI
W.E.T. World Risk Index
18.4Very low
111 / 124 live38 elevated49 calm
W.E.T. World Risk Index (WWRI) prints a WET Index Score of 18.4 (Very low), with no daily change published.
Constituents rebalanced; the basket changed too much to chain, so the series is rebased at 18.4 and price moves resume tomorrow. Not a market move.
The board: 111 of 124 benchmarks live — 38 elevated (≥60), 49 calm (<40).
WET Implied · real-unit readings
- Fed Path (WIFP): next meeting (Sep 2026) prices +7bps expected change (70% hold); cumulative +15.9bps by Dec 2026.
- Inflation (WIIN): Aug 2026 CPI YoY implied at 3.35% (80% band 3.16–3.5%, n=26 strikes).
Overround-normalized, isotonic-repaired readings of Kalshi contract ladders — numbers with units, not sentiment gauges.
What moved
- WELW 31.3 (▲4.6) — Rose 4.6 to 31.3 (Low), led by Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican n… (78→71%) +3.1 repricing; Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral ele… (59→56%) +1.4 repricing.
- WNFL 51.9 (▲1.4) — Rose 1.4 to 51.9 (Moderate), led by Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? (29→32%) +1.2 repricing; Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs ne… (6→9%) +0.2 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will the Seahawks win the season series against the… (73→78%) −0.2 repricing.
- WFLA 34.1 (▼1.3) — Fell 1.3 to 34.1 (Low), led by US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (51→41%) −0.9 repricing, −0.1 reweight; NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? (98→99%) +0.0 repricing, +1.0 reweight; US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? (10→8%) −0.5 repricing.
- WCDR 30.3 (▼1.0) — Fell 1.0 to 30.3 (Low), led by Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magn… (49→47%) −0.5 repricing; 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? −0.1 repricing.
- WDCW 32.1 (▼0.9) — Fell 0.9 to 32.1 (Low), led by US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,… (51→41%) −0.8 repricing, +0.1 reweight; Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after… (73→71%) −0.5 repricing; Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur… (76→80%) +0.5 repricing.
Projection watch
- WSTW projected 5.9 in 14d (80% band 0–100), trending down.
- WSHI projected 20.8 in 14d (80% band 0–99), trending down.
- WFLA projected 26.1 in 14d (80% band 12–41), trending down.
The full board
| Ticker | Index | Score | 1d | As of | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGRI | Geopolitical Risk | 17.6 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Very low & steady, volatile |
| WFPI | Fed Path | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Very low & steady |
| WEHI | Election Heat | 46.4 | -0.4 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WARI | AI Race | 51.1 | +0.2 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WRCI | Recession Odds | 22.9 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Low & steady |
| WCGF | Crypto Greed | 21.1 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCDR | Climate Risk | 30.3 | -1.0 | 2026-08-21 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WCHI | Culture Heat | 39.8 | -0.4 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WPTI | Political Turmoil | 24.6 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WCOS | Commodity Stress | 5.4 | — | 2026-08-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WSHI | Sports Heat | 30.7 | — | 2026-08-10 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WEGF | Equity Greed | 51.7 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & climbing |
| WMID | Midterm Control | 56.9 | +0.2 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & climbing |
| WELW | Election Week | 31.3 | +4.6 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFLA | Flashpoint Watch | 34.1 | -1.3 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling |
| WDCW | Washington Week | 32.1 | -0.9 | 2026-08-21 | Low & steady |
| WGEA | Global Easing | 26.7 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling |
| WINF | Inflation Watch | 47.9 | +0.1 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & climbing |
| WEBI | Earnings Beat | 72.2 | — | 2026-08-12 | Elevated & climbing |
| WBTP | Bitcoin Path | 8.9 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Very low & steady |
| WALT | Altcoin Heat | 29.7 | 0.0 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling |
| WAWD | Awards Race | 45.1 | +0.7 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & cooling |
| WSTW | Storm Watch | 27.4 | — | 2026-08-09 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WFAV | Favorites Combo | 64.8 | — | 2026-08-05 | Elevated |
| WSOC | Soccer Heat | 33.5 | — | 2026-08-08 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WNFL | Gridiron Futures | 51.9 | +1.4 | 2026-08-21 | Moderate & steady |
| WWRI | World Risk | 18.4 | — | 2026-08-21 | Very low & cooling, volatile |
| WMSI | Macro Stress | 13.6 | — | 2026-08-21 | Very low & cooling |
| WUPR | US Political Risk | 29.4 | -0.1 | 2026-08-21 | Low & cooling |
| WACHI | Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 25.2 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WACH2 | Inverse Achieved — Tech Science, inside six months | 74.8 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WALBU | Album — Culture, inside six months | 50.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WANGE | Angeles — Sports, inside six months | 81.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high & climbing, volatile |
| WANTH | Anthropic — Financials, inside six months | 46.8 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & steady, volatile |
| WARIZ | Arizona Football, inside six months | 20.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WARI2 | Inverse Arizona Football, inside six months | 79.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WARTI | Artist — Culture, inside six months | 39.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WBALT | Baltimore Football, inside six months | 29.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WBAL2 | Inverse Baltimore Football, inside six months | 70.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WBANK | Bank — Economics, inside six months | 69.8 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WBUFF | Buffalo Football, inside six months | 36.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WBUF2 | Inverse Buffalo Football, inside six months | 63.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WCAPT | Capture — Politics, inside six months | 46.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling |
| WCINC | Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 26.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WCIN2 | Inverse Cincinnati Football, inside six months | 73.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WCLEV | Cleveland Football, inside six months | 25.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WCLE2 | Inverse Cleveland Football, inside six months | 74.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WCODE | Code Arena — Tech Science, inside two months | 44.2 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WCOUN | Country — Politics, inside six months | 39.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & cooling |
| WDENV | Denver Football, inside six months | 29.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WDEN2 | Inverse Denver Football, inside six months | 70.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WDETR | Detroit Football, inside six months | 13.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very low & steady |
| WDET2 | Inverse Detroit Football, inside six months | 86.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high & steady |
| WELEC | Election — Politics, inside six months | 48.0 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WFEDE | Federal — Economics, inside six months | 40.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & steady |
| WGOOG | Google — Tech Science, inside six months | 61.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & climbing |
| WGREE | Green Bay Football, inside six months | 29.0 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WGRE2 | Inverse Green Bay Football, inside six months | 71.0 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WHIGH | Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 34.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing, volatile |
| WHIG2 | Inverse Higher — Tech Science, inside six months | 65.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WHIKE | Hike — Economics, inside six months | 32.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WHIK2 | Inverse Hike — Economics, inside six months | 67.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WHOUS | Houston Football, inside six months | 19.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very low |
| WHOU2 | Inverse Houston Football, inside six months | 80.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high |
| WINCR | Increase — Economics, inside six months | 17.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very low & cooling |
| WINC2 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside six months | 82.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high & climbing |
| WINC3 | Increase — Economics, inside two months | 35.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & cooling |
| WINC4 | Inverse Increase — Economics, inside two months | 64.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & climbing |
| WINTE | Interest — Economics, inside six months | 69.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WINT2 | Interest — Economics, inside two months | 52.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WKANS | Kansas City Football, inside six months | 30.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WKAN2 | Inverse Kansas City Football, inside six months | 69.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WLASV | Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 27.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WLAS2 | Inverse Las Vegas Football, inside six months | 72.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WLOSA | Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 33.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WLOS2 | Inverse Los Angeles Football, inside six months | 66.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WMEET | Meeting — Economics, inside six months | 71.2 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WMEE2 | Meeting — Economics, inside two months | 58.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling |
| WMIAM | Miami Football, inside six months | 31.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WMIA2 | Inverse Miami Football, inside six months | 68.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WMIDT | Midterm — Elections, inside six months | 51.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WNEWE | New England Football, inside six months | 28.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WNEW2 | Inverse New England Football, inside six months | 71.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WNEWY | New York Football, inside six months | 12.2 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very low |
| WNEW3 | Inverse New York Football, inside six months | 87.8 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high |
| WOPEN | Openai — Financials, inside six months | 46.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & climbing |
| WOPE2 | Openai — Financials, inside two years | 44.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WPARL | Parliamentary — Elections, inside two months | 61.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WPHIL | Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 24.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WPHI2 | Inverse Philadelphia Football, inside six months | 75.5 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WPITT | Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 5.8 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very low |
| WPIT2 | Inverse Pittsburgh Football, inside six months | 94.2 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high |
| WPRES | President — Politics, inside six months | 43.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & climbing |
| WRACE | Race — Elections, inside six months | 76.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling, volatile |
| WRATE | Rate — Economics, inside six months | 38.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & cooling, volatile |
| WRAT2 | Inverse Rate — Economics, inside six months | 61.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & climbing, volatile |
| WRAT3 | Rate — Economics, inside two months | 58.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling |
| WRAT4 | Rates — Economics, inside two months | 51.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WRELE | Released — Tech Science, inside six months | 65.6 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WRESE | Reserve — Economics, inside six months | 57.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & climbing, volatile |
| WSANF | San Francisco Football, inside six months | 16.1 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very low |
| WSAN2 | Inverse San Francisco Football, inside six months | 83.9 | — | 2026-08-20 | Very high |
| WSCOR | Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 27.8 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & climbing |
| WSCO2 | Inverse Score — Tech Science, inside six months | 72.2 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & cooling |
| WSEAT | Seats — Elections, inside two months | 61.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & climbing |
| WSEA2 | Seattle Football, inside six months | 24.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low & steady, volatile |
| WSEA3 | Inverse Seattle Football, inside six months | 75.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated & steady, volatile |
| WTAYL | Taylor Swift — Culture, inside six months | 42.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate & cooling, volatile |
| WTENN | Tennessee Football, inside six months | 22.3 | — | 2026-08-20 | Low |
| WTEN2 | Inverse Tennessee Football, inside six months | 77.7 | — | 2026-08-20 | Elevated |
| WYORK | York — Sports, inside six months | 50.4 | — | 2026-08-20 | Moderate |
Benchmark readings of prediction-market prices — data, not advice. Every method is published.