WMEET

Meeting — Economics, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print51 held · close 2026-11-05

1187.16+18.72%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 1187.16
Since inception: +18.72%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 45.1% of 51
1 day: −0.11%
7 day: −0.33%
Markets held: 51
Settled: 4
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 71.3%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 53

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 51 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 68cpolymarketYES68c22c−68.1%12.0%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c17c−29.8%11.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c78c+216.3%7.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c12 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+1.0%6.6%Kalshi ↗
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 28c28 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c99c+260.0%3.1%Polymarket ↗
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c78c+26.0%2.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c99c+8.3%1.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c19c−7.5%1.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 50bps at the November Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 4c26 sessions stalekalshiYES4c3c−14.3%1.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stalekalshiYES24c19c−21.3%1.2%Kalshi ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c15 sessions stalekalshiYES2c1c−50.0%0.5%Kalshi ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 95cpolymarketNO95c99c+4.4%0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−54.5%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 92c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c94c+2.2%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?polymarket · NO · entry 86cpolymarketNO86c99c+15.3%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c16 sessions stalekalshiYES94c99c+5.9%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 9c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c8c−11.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c2c−66.7%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c15 sessions stalekalshiYES8c21c+173.3%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92c4.0¢ spread · 53.2k/8.3k within 5¢kalshiNO92c99c+7.7%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c13 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71c13 sessions stalekalshiYES71c83c+16.2%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiYES2c2c−25.0%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c21c−69.6%0.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89ckalshiYES89c97c+9.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98ckalshiYES98c99c+1.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c80c+211.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 74c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES74c88c+19.0%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c99c+4.2%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c98c+5.4%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c98c+4.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3ckalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c98c+4.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 86c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES86c14c−84.2%0.1%Polymarket ↗
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 81c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c95c+17.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84ckalshiYES84c99c+18.6%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+5.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95ckalshiYES95c98c+3.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c12c−51.1%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53c2 sessions stalekalshiYES53c99c+85.8%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c99c+5.3%0.1%Kalshi ↗
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 73c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES73c90c+22.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93ckalshiYES93c99c+5.9%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91ckalshiYES91c96c+5.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 90ckalshiYES90c96c+6.7%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 19c4 sessions stalekalshiYES19c72c+286.5%0.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c2c−60.0%0.1%Kalshi ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 51 constituents by weight.

Settled · 4

graded outcomes — the basket's realized record

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?yes+39.9%

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?yes+156.4%

Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?no+5.8%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?no+4.8%

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 51

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent

95.10%

Π of the individual probabilities

True range · any correlation

95.0–99.0%

Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 4.0pp wide

NOWill the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?99%

YESFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?99%

NOWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?99%

NOWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?99%

YESWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?99%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.