Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Inflation Watch Index
v1SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Cooling → Running hot)
How much upside inflation pressure the market is pricing into the next prints.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1097.45
- Since inception
- +9.74%
- Cost to cross
- 0.70pts
- Holdings marked
- 55.6% of 18
- 1 day
- −1.00%
- 7 day
- +1.66%
- Markets held
- 18
- Settled
- 7
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 85.7% (6 of 7)
- Cash
- 72.6%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 18 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 24c1.0¢ spread · 10.9k/13.7k within 5¢polymarketYES24c13c−45.8%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 56c1.0¢ spread · 67/189 within 5¢polymarketYES56c3c−94.4%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?polymarket · YES · entry 69c1.0¢ spread · 5.7k/7.4k within 5¢polymarketYES69c96c+39.9%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 54c4.0¢ spread · 124/116 within 5¢polymarketYES54c89c+65.4%5.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 65c0.1¢ spread · 358/251 within 5¢polymarketYES65c69c+5.3%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 7c4.0¢ spread · 2.2k/278 within 5¢polymarketYES7c5c−30.7%4.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?polymarket · YES · entry 38c0.1¢ spread · 641/694 within 5¢polymarketYES38c39c+2.6%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?polymarket · YES · entry 50c0.7¢ spread · 2.5k/2.7k within 5¢polymarketYES50c70c+38.8%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?polymarket · YES · entry 42c1.0¢ spread · 250/1.2k within 5¢polymarketYES42c61c+45.8%3.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?polymarket · YES · entry 69c5 sessions stale0.9¢ spread · 406/3.4k within 5¢polymarketYES69c86c+25.8%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?polymarket · YES · entry 32c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES32c26c−19.0%3.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?polymarket · YES · entry 30c15 sessions stale0.2¢ spread · 256/361 within 5¢polymarketYES30c9c−69.5%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?polymarket · YES · entry 38c15 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 408/100 within 5¢polymarketYES38c21c−44.6%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c15 sessions stale3.0¢ spread · 14.7k/68 within 5¢polymarketYES30c4c−86.5%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?polymarket · YES · entry 40c1.7¢ spread · 143/82 within 5¢polymarketYES40c61c+55.6%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 66c44 sessions stalepolymarketYES66c5c−93.1%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will China's CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 37c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES37c26c−30.1%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?polymarket · YES · entry 37c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES37c33c−11.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 40d Range
- 4574
- Percentile
- 93th
- 8d Change
- +7.1
- Volatility
- 2.0 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d down
- Markets
- 15
- Effective N
- 7.3
- Top Weight
- 30%
- Venues
- 15 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 15/26
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.8499
Daily close
40d published · interactive40 published close(s) — 0–100 (Cooling → Running hot). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 40d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 40 readings, slope +0.41/day, projection σ 2.3 pts/d widened for a 40-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 15 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
1 of 15 constituents has a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
A year from now, where will US interest rates be?
Lower — the Fed keeps cuttingSame or higher — rates stay highOver the next 12 months, will prices rise faster or slower than now?
Slower — inflation keeps coolingFaster — inflation picks back up
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WINF · at a glance
- What it is
- The price-pressure gauge — how hot the market thinks prints will run.
- High vs low
- Higher = markets pricing hotter inflation. Lower = cooling.
- Who cares
- Rates and macro desks reading CPI risk between prints.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Inflation Watch Index (WINF) prints a WET Index Score of 69.6/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.