WFEDE

Federal — Economics, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print56 held · close 2026-09-08

1010.59+1.06%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket total return: 1010.59
Since inception: +1.06%
Cost to cross: —
Holdings marked: 35.7% of 56
1 day: −0.01%
7 day: +1.82%
Markets held: 56
Settled: 0
Rebalanced out: 0
Hit rate: —
Cash: 49.5%
Inception: 2026-08-18
Weighting: Equal notional
Marks: Two-sided mid
Days tracked: 18

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 56 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs

MarketVenueEntryNowReturnWt

Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?kalshi · NO · entry 84c1.1¢ spread · 2.0k/15.8k within 5¢kalshiNO84c89c+5.3%15.0%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiNO95c96c+1.1%15.0%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiNO98c99c+0.5%15.0%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 24ckalshiYES24c27c+12.8%10.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2ckalshiYES2c2c−25.0%3.9%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiYES98c97c−1.0%3.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c97c+3.2%3.1%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5c2 sessions stalekalshiYES5c6c+33.3%2.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 8c2 sessions stalekalshiYES8c7c−6.7%1.9%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 92c2.0¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiNO92c88c−3.8%1.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%1.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 71ckalshiYES71c69c−3.5%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 2c2 sessions stalekalshiYES2c3c+25.0%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 68ckalshiYES68c49c−28.1%1.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 89c2 sessions stalekalshiYES89c90c+0.6%1.2%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stalekalshiYES98c98c0.0%1.0%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 26ckalshiYES26c42c+62.7%1.0%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c−0.5%0.9%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c0.0%0.9%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c+2.0%0.9%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.8%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c95c+1.6%0.8%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalekalshiYES3c1c−60.0%0.8%Kalshi ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 87cpolymarketYES87c82c−5.3%0.8%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c92c−1.1%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 84c2 sessions stalekalshiYES84c92c+10.2%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c94c+0.5%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stalekalshiYES95c95c0.0%0.7%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 53c2 sessions stalekalshiYES53c79c+49.1%0.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stalekalshiYES94c95c+0.5%0.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stalekalshiYES93c93c0.0%0.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stalekalshiYES91c93c+1.6%0.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 90c2 sessions stalekalshiYES90c90c−0.6%0.6%Kalshi ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 6cpolymarketYES6c4c−33.3%0.6%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 19c2 sessions stalekalshiYES19c38c+102.7%0.5%Kalshi ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c4c+30.9%0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 8cpolymarketYES8c10c+18.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?polymarket · YES · entry 13cpolymarketYES13c13c−3.8%0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−20.3%0.5%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 5ckalshiYES5c7c+30.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?kalshi · NO · entry 90c2 sessions stalekalshiNO90c95c+5.0%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c14c−3.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 10c2 sessions stalekalshiYES10c11c+10.5%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c2c−37.2%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c21c+53.6%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting?kalshi · YES · entry 22ckalshiYES22c22c0.0%0.3%Kalshi ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c11c+22.2%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−17.6%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c4c+4.3%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?polymarket · YES · entry 20cpolymarketYES20c19c−5.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 56 constituents by weight.

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 56

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent

85.41%

Π of the individual probabilities

True range · any correlation

84.5–95.5%

Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 11.0pp wide

NOWill the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting?99%

YESWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?98%

YESWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?97%

YESWill the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?97%

NOWill the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?96%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.