Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index
v3SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 14, 2026 · last moved Sep 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Fear → Greed)
How greedy vs fearful equity positioning is, read from priced upside vs a selloff.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1009.40
- Since inception
- +0.94%
- Cost to cross
- 0.94pts
- Holdings marked
- 68.0% of 25
- 1 day
- +0.24%
- 7 day
- +0.59%
- Markets held
- 25
- Settled
- 3
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 56.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 41
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 25 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 57c2.0¢ spread · 6.1k/5.9k within 5¢polymarketYES57c71c+23.5%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 61.6k/14.2k within 5¢polymarketYES14c14c0.0%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES93c35c−62.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- OKX IPO in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 25.2k/740 within 5¢polymarketYES9c6c−35.3%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 25c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES25c10c−59.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 82c0.2¢ spread · 33.7k/210.5k within 5¢polymarketYES82c95c+16.3%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?polymarket · YES · entry 90c0.1¢ spread · 45.4k/77.8k within 5¢polymarketYES90c94c+5.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 64c2.0¢ spread · 10.4k/24.7k within 5¢polymarketYES64c87c+35.9%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 69c3.0¢ spread · 190/1.7k within 5¢polymarketYES69c53c−23.9%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c5.2¢ spread · 6.9k/409 within 5¢polymarketYES9c5c−38.8%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 40c1.0¢ spread · 13.0k/14.8k within 5¢polymarketYES40c83c+106.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 55c3.0¢ spread · 279/260 within 5¢polymarketYES55c64c+15.5%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?polymarket · YES · entry 80c3.0¢ spread · 1.3k/1.9k within 5¢polymarketYES80c93c+16.4%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- SHEIN IPO before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 87c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c99c+14.4%5.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 61c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES61c40c−34.7%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 83c2.0¢ spread · 4.8k/18.5k within 5¢polymarketYES83c91c+10.3%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 51c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES51c40c−21.8%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1.0¢ spread · 45.5k/9.9k within 5¢polymarketYES11c7c−38.1%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c1.0¢ spread · 17.0k/2.5k within 5¢polymarketYES17c9c−45.7%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 35c1.4¢ spread · 3.5k/5.9k within 5¢polymarketYES35c73c+110.4%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c0.3¢ spread · 25.2k/507 within 5¢polymarketYES3c1c−68.3%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 26c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES26c25c−5.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 83c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES83c84c+0.6%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 72c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES72c66c−7.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?polymarket · YES · entry 56c1.0¢ spread · 1.3k/4.6k within 5¢polymarketYES56c84c+50.5%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- 60.90
- Band
- Elevated
- 35d Range
- 5061
- Percentile
- 100th
- 7d Change
- +1.1
- Volatility
- 1.7 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 28
- Effective N
- 12.1
- Top Weight
- 13%
- Venues
- 1 K · 27 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 28/28
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×1.0357
Daily close
35d published · interactive35 published close(s) — 0–100 (Fear → Greed). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 35d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 35 readings, slope +0.20/day, projection σ 2.0 pts/d widened for a 35-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 28 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-14) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
8 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
- Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
- Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability
- IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
- 3rd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How crowded is the equity trade?
Wall of worry holdsPriced for perfectionWhere do equities go from here?
A drawdown is comingMarkets grind higher
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WEGF · at a glance
- What it is
- The greed gauge for stocks — read from priced upside vs downside.
- High vs low
- Higher = greedy (record highs richly priced). Lower = fearful (selloff priced). ~50 = neutral.
- Who cares
- Equity traders and market reporters who want a prediction-market-native read on stock-market risk appetite.
Embed this score
always the latest published reading, dated · attribution built inPut the live WEGF reading on your own site, README, or newsletter.
Badge For articles, profiles & READMEs
The index. Ready to share. Actual embed
[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/equity-greed)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/equity-greed"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/equity-greed/badge" alt="WEGF — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/equity-greed" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WEGF — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index (WEGF) prints a WET Index Score of 61.4/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.