Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index
v3SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Fear → Greed)
How greedy vs fearful equity positioning is, read from priced upside vs a selloff.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 954.28
- Since inception
- −4.57%
- Cost to cross
- 0.91pts
- Holdings marked
- 64.0% of 25
- 1 day
- −2.19%
- 7 day
- −3.18%
- Markets held
- 25
- Settled
- 3
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 60.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 25 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 57c1.0¢ spread · 4.1k/44.9k within 5¢polymarketYES57c39c−32.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 14c1.0¢ spread · 19.0k/15.5k within 5¢polymarketYES14c8c−48.3%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93cpolymarketYES93c67c−27.6%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- OKX IPO in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.0¢ spread · 27.6k/696 within 5¢polymarketYES9c3c−61.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 25c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES25c10c−59.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 82c0.4¢ spread · 59.9k/472.1k within 5¢polymarketYES82c98c+19.6%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?polymarket · YES · entry 90c0.6¢ spread · 30.0k/105.2k within 5¢polymarketYES90c98c+9.5%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 64c2.0¢ spread · 10.3k/6.3k within 5¢polymarketYES64c91c+42.5%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 69c6.0¢ spread · 293/1.5k within 5¢polymarketYES69c87c+25.4%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 9c1.8¢ spread · 12.7k/122 within 5¢polymarketYES9c3c−61.2%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 40c1.0¢ spread · 3.5k/13.7k within 5¢polymarketYES40c56c+40.0%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 55c2.0¢ spread · 600/529 within 5¢polymarketYES55c46c−17.3%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?polymarket · YES · entry 80c3.7¢ spread · 309/724 within 5¢polymarketYES80c73c−8.1%5.3%Polymarket ↗
- SHEIN IPO before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 87c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c99c+14.4%5.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 61c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES61c40c−34.7%2.9%Polymarket ↗
- Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 83c2.0¢ spread · 5.8k/5.1k within 5¢polymarketYES83c91c+9.7%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 51c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES51c40c−21.8%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 11c1.0¢ spread · 98.1k/29.3k within 5¢polymarketYES11c4c−61.9%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?polymarket · YES · entry 17c15 sessions stale1.9¢ spread · 46.3k/1.3k within 5¢polymarketYES17c7c−58.4%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 35c1.0¢ spread · 3.0k/3.8k within 5¢polymarketYES35c37c+6.1%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c15 sessions stale1.3¢ spread · 29.9k/317 within 5¢polymarketYES3c2c−47.6%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 26c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES26c25c−5.8%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 83c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES83c84c+0.6%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 72c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES72c66c−7.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?polymarket · YES · entry 56c1.0¢ spread · 2.6k/7.1k within 5¢polymarketYES56c54c−2.7%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Elevated
- 41d Range
- 5062
- Percentile
- 100th
- 8d Change
- +0.8
- Volatility
- 1.6 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 28
- Effective N
- 12.1
- Top Weight
- 14%
- Venues
- 1 K · 27 P
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 28/28
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×1.0407
Daily close
41d published · interactive41 published close(s) — 0–100 (Fear → Greed). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 41d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 41 readings, slope +0.23/day, projection σ 1.8 pts/d widened for a 41-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 28 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
9 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
- Crude Oil all time high by...? — Odds & Probability
- Largest Company end of December 2026? — Odds
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? — Odds & Probability
- Anthropic IPO by __? — Odds & Probability
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Probability
- IPOs before 2027? — Odds & Probability
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — Odds
- 3rd Largest Company end of September 2026? — Odds
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Will US stocks fall 10% or more at some point in the next 12 months?
No — any dips stay smallYes — a 10%+ drop comesA year from now, will US stocks be higher or lower than today?
Lower than todayHigher than today
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WEGF · at a glance
- What it is
- The greed gauge for stocks — read from priced upside vs downside.
- High vs low
- Higher = greedy (record highs richly priced). Lower = fearful (selloff priced). ~50 = neutral.
- Who cares
- Equity traders and market reporters who want a prediction-market-native read on stock-market risk appetite.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index (WEGF) prints a WET Index Score of 62.2/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.