Equity Greed & Fear
WEGFW.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index
How greedy vs fearful equity positioning is, read from priced upside vs a selloff.
Higher = greedy (record highs richly priced). Lower = fearful (selloff priced). ~50 = neutral.
History · 1 day
Computed from 7 markets (effective 4.6) · 4 Kalshi / 3 Polymarket · $1.4M vol · top holding 25%
Forward projection
A 14-day model extrapolation of this index's published history — a robust trend inside an 80% band. It reads the series, not the news: a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Projection begins once 7 daily readings are in (1/7 so far).
The desk read
Rose 0.7 to 68.1 (Elevated).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
81% · 25% wt · kalshi
- +0.0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
93% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B?
13% · 25% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 27000 at the end of Jul 31, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
99% · 15% wt · kalshi
- +0.0
Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?
64% · 9% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will the S&P 500 be below 7050 on Jul 31, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
96% · 1% wt · kalshi
WEGF · at a glance
- What it is
- The greed gauge for stocks — read from priced upside vs downside.
- High vs low
- Higher = greedy (record highs richly priced). Lower = fearful (selloff priced). ~50 = neutral.
- Who cares
- Equity traders and market reporters who want a prediction-market-native read on stock-market risk appetite.
What's in it today
Exactly which categories and markets drive today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
Contribution by category
| Market | Category | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | financials | kalshi | 81% | 25.0% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?(inverse) | financials | polymarket | 93% | 25.0% |
| Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B? | financials | polymarket | 13% | 25.0% |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 27000 at the end of Jul 31, 2026 at 4pm EDT?(inverse) | financials | kalshi | 99% | 14.7% |
| Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?(inverse) | financials | polymarket | 64% | 8.7% |
| Will the S&P 500 be below 7050 on Jul 31, 2026 at 4pm EDT?(inverse) | financials | kalshi | 96% | 1.3% |
| Will the USD/JPY open price be below 157.250 at Aug 3, 2026 at 10am EDT?(inverse) | financials | kalshi | 85% | 0.3% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 31, 2026, the W.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index (WEGF) reads 68.1/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Equity Greed & Fear Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.