Election — Politics, inside two months — the basket
SlateExperimentalMonthlyThe real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 965.64
- Since inception
- −3.44%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 86.9% of 61
- 1 day
- +0.42%
- 7 day
- −1.96%
- Markets held
- 61
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.9%
- Inception
- 2026-08-27
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 11
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 61 markets
held since 2026-08-27 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 62cpolymarketYES62c56c−9.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c1c−43.8%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 35cpolymarketYES35c43c+21.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c3c−41.1%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93cpolymarketYES93c98c+5.0%4.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c5c−40.6%3.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c97c−0.2%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?polymarket · YES · entry 34c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES34c37c+9.0%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−0.6%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c98c+0.2%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c97c−0.1%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Vladislav Khovalyg win the 2026 Tuva gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−0.5%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c97c0.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c98c+2.3%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c95c−0.2%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c95c−0.9%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 89c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c89c+0.6%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tomsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c98c+0.1%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c98c+1.4%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 84cpolymarketYES84c89c+5.4%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c96c−1.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?polymarket · YES · entry 28c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c30c+7.1%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.2%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Kursk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c98c+2.5%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c96c+1.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Karelia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c+0.1%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Chuvashia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c99c+3.6%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c97c−0.9%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 38cpolymarketYES38c10c−75.0%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c94c−3.8%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.1%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98cpolymarketYES98c98c−0.1%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 64c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES64c69c+7.9%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Lipetsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c98c+0.8%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c98c+3.1%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95cpolymarketYES95c95c−0.1%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 17cpolymarketYES17c53c+213.0%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c97c+1.2%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c10c−5.7%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?polymarket · YES · entry 56c10 sessions stalepolymarketYES56c56c0.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97cpolymarketYES97c98c+1.3%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c+0.5%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 42cpolymarketYES42c31c−26.5%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c96c−0.4%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Stavropol Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c95c−0.9%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 7cpolymarketYES7c4c−46.4%0.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will United Russia win the next Oryol Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96cpolymarketYES96c97c+0.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will LDPR win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c−19.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c2c0.0%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will A Just Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c3c+15.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
Showing the 50 heaviest of 61 constituents by weight.
All markets resolve YES · 5 of 61
a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhereThe chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.
The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.
Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.
This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.
How to read this
The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.
This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.