WELE2

Election — Politics, inside two months — the basket

SlateExperimentalMonthly

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

No level published for this basket

No return published — not one of this basket's 60 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-05. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.

Basket level · official print60 held · close 2026-11-05
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
0.0% of 60
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
60
Settled
1
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
53.0%
Inception
2026-08-27
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
46

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 60 markets

held since 2026-08-27 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 62c28 sessions stale45c−27.6%↗
  • Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 2c28 sessions stale1c−43.8%↗
  • Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 35c28 sessions stale54c+53.1%↗
  • Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5c17 sessions stale1c−77.8%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 93c23 sessions stale96c+3.3%↗
  • Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?polymarket · YES · entry 9c28 sessions stale7c−26.1%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Kamchatka Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c27 sessions stale97c−0.2%↗
  • Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?polymarket · YES · entry 34c24 sessions stale1c−97.0%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Krasnoyarsk Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stale97c+0.3%↗
  • Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c24 sessions stale99c+1.2%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stale97c+0.8%↗
  • Will Vladislav Khovalyg win the 2026 Tuva gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stale99c+2.5%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stale99c+2.5%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c22 sessions stale99c+3.1%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale97c+1.0%↗
  • Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale99c+3.2%↗
  • Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 89c28 sessions stale76c−14.1%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Tomsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c23 sessions stale98c+0.6%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stale99c+2.2%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Altai Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c27 sessions stale96c−0.7%↗
  • Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?polymarket · YES · entry 28c24 sessions stale5c−82.9%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c22 sessions stale98c+1.4%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Kursk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c23 sessions stale97c+2.1%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c23 sessions stale99c+3.8%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Karelia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c27 sessions stale97c+0.6%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Chuvashia Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale99c+3.3%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c23 sessions stale99c+1.4%↗
  • Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 38c28 sessions stale15c−60.5%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c23 sessions stale96c−1.4%↗
  • Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale99c+2.9%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 98c23 sessions stale98c+0.2%↗
  • Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 64c28 sessions stale85c+33.9%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Lipetsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c21 sessions stale99c+2.1%↗
  • Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c22 sessions stale99c+4.3%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 95c23 sessions stale94c−1.1%↗
  • Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 17c28 sessions stale45c+167.2%↗
  • Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale99c+3.2%↗
  • Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 11c28 sessions stale22c+102.8%↗
  • Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?polymarket · YES · entry 56c45 sessions stale56c0.0%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 97c23 sessions stale97c−0.1%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale99c+3.6%↗
  • Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 42c28 sessions stale39c−6.0%↗
  • Will Alexey Russkikh win the next Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c23 sessions stale99c+2.9%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Stavropol Krai Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c22 sessions stale99c+2.9%↗
  • Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 7c18 sessions stale4c−42.8%↗
  • Will United Russia win the next Oryol Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c21 sessions stale99c+2.7%↗
  • Will LDPR win the next Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2c23 sessions stale3c+23.8%↗
  • Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?polymarket · YES · entry 2c23 sessions stale1c−56.5%↗
  • Will A Just Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?polymarket · YES · entry 3c23 sessions stale1c−61.5%↗
  • Will Progressistas (PP) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 3c18 sessions stale1c−66.7%↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 60 constituents by weight.

Settled · 1

graded outcomes — the basket's realized record
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?yes+19.0%

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 60

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent
95.10%
Π of the individual probabilities
True range · any correlation
95.0–99.0%
Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 4.0pp wide
YESWill Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?99%
YESWill Vladislav Khovalyg win the 2026 Tuva gubernatorial elections?99%
YESWill United Russia win the next Murmansk Oblast Parliament elections?99%
YESWill United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?99%
YESWill Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?99%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.