WEHI

Election Heat — the basket

Slate

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

No level published for this basket

No level published — this book's daily returns cannot be attributed to its own holdings. On 40 days the per-market contributions do not sum to the day's return; the widest break is 2026-08-14, off by 3.18e-3. Cash earns nothing here and there are no flows, so that sum is an identity, not an approximation — a gap means the replay and the attribution disagree about what this basket held. The level is withheld until they agree.

Basket level · official print51 held · close 2026-09-20
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
0.43pts
Holdings marked
72.5% of 51
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
51
Settled
6
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
—
Inception
2026-08-01
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
0

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 51 markets

held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c1.0¢ spread · 48.2k/18.0k within 5¢28c−5.0%↗
  • Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c0.1¢ spread · 37.0k/678.3k within 5¢95c+1.3%↗
  • Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 63c1.0¢ spread · 76.7k/18.3k within 5¢63c0.0%↗
  • Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?polymarket · YES · entry 39c13c−67.5%↗
  • Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c45 sessions stale96c0.0%↗
  • Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c58c+2.7%↗
  • Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 23c24c+4.4%↗
  • Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 93c45 sessions stale93c0.0%↗
  • Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 56c1.0¢ spread · 71.4k/235.0k within 5¢39c−30.6%↗
  • Trump out as President before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 7c1.0¢ spread · 1756.3k/157.1k within 5¢6c−15.4%↗
  • Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 67c1.0¢ spread · 159.2k/209.5k within 5¢81c+20.1%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 86c1.0¢ spread · 536.7k/2177.5k within 5¢94c+9.4%↗
  • Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c1.0¢ spread · 48.2k/18.0k within 5¢28c−5.0%↗
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 45c1.0¢ spread · 66.6k/67.6k within 5¢61c+36.0%↗
  • Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 30c0.1¢ spread · 473.9k/128.8k within 5¢37c+24.3%↗
  • Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c0.1¢ spread · 37.0k/678.3k within 5¢95c+1.3%↗
  • Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · YES · entry 49c1.0¢ spread · 128.4k/34.4k within 5¢52c+5.9%↗
  • Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 63c1.0¢ spread · 76.7k/18.3k within 5¢63c0.0%↗
  • Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c45 sessions stale56c0.0%↗
  • Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 96c0.1¢ spread · 43.8k/113.9k within 5¢98c+2.3%↗
  • Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 73c2.0¢ spread · 675/474 within 5¢85c+17.2%↗
  • Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 16c45 sessions stale16c0.0%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 67c45 sessions stale67c0.0%↗
  • Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 80c2.0¢ spread · 20.8k/36.8k within 5¢66c−17.0%↗
  • Democratic Party — Which party will win the U.S. House?gemini · YES · entry 85c1.0¢ spread · 5.2k/3.2k within 5¢88c+3.6%↗
  • Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 81c9 sessions stale81c0.0%↗
  • Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?polymarket · YES · entry 35c1.1¢ spread · 5.0k/2.6k within 5¢22c−37.0%↗
  • Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 69c24c−65.9%↗
  • Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c2.0¢ spread · 4.7k/160.9k within 5¢74c+22.3%↗
  • Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 5c0.1¢ spread · 23.3k/4.8k within 5¢3c−43.8%↗
  • Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 18c45 sessions stale18c0.0%↗
  • Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?polymarket · YES · entry 28c1c−96.5%↗
  • Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?polymarket · YES · entry 83c1.0¢ spread · 26.2k/45.3k within 5¢86c+3.6%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 62c2 sessions stale79c+27.6%↗
  • Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 54c2.0¢ spread · 17.8k/16.3k within 5¢54c+0.9%↗
  • Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?polymarket · YES · entry 38c1.0¢ spread · 33.2k/30.4k within 5¢67c+77.3%↗
  • Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 94c0.1¢ spread · 7.7k/21.6k within 5¢98c+5.3%↗
  • Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 72c1.0¢ spread · 8.6k/17.9k within 5¢75c+4.2%↗
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?polymarket · YES · entry 39c3 sessions stale17c−55.8%↗
  • Before 2027? — Will crypto market structure legislation become law?gemini · YES · entry 33c3.0¢ spread · 1.6k/370 within 5¢9c−73.8%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 95c1.0¢ spread · 5.4k/354 within 5¢96c+1.1%↗
  • Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?polymarket · YES · entry 62c2.0¢ spread · 15.0k/16.9k within 5¢39c−36.6%↗
  • Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 96c1.0¢ spread · 543/457 within 5¢96c0.0%↗
  • Before 2027 — Will the US buy at least part of Greenland?gemini · YES · entry 4c2 sessions stale6c+57.1%↗
  • Xavier Becerra — California Governor winner?gemini · YES · entry 96c1.0¢ spread · 672/10.2k within 5¢97c+1.0%↗
  • Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 57c1.0¢ spread · 548/486 within 5¢46c−20.9%↗
  • Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c91c+63.4%↗
  • Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 12c45 sessions stale12c0.0%↗
  • Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 83c45 sessions stale83c0.0%↗
  • Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 22c45 sessions stale22c0.0%↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 51 constituents by weight.

Settled · 6

graded outcomes — the basket's realized record
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?yes+14.3%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?yes+57.2%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?yes+25.8%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?no−100.0%
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?no−100.0%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?no−100.0%

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 51

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent
85.13%
Π of the individual probabilities
True range · any correlation
84.2–95.5%
Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 11.3pp wide
YESWill Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?98%
YESWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?98%
YESXavier Becerra — California Governor winner?97%
YESWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?96%
YESWill the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?96%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.