Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board

This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →

WEHI

W.E.T. Election Heat Index

v3Slate
48.50+0.20 (+0.41%)Moderate & climbing, volatile

As of Sep 5, 2026 · last moved Sep 4, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Mostly decided → Toss-ups)

How competitive the elections prediction markets are right now.

Retired — read instead: the published W.E.T. index suite. no like-for-like successor is published. This reading declared the `elections` category and nothing else, admitting all 66 election markets on the 2026-08-13 board, so no market could ever have been evidence that it was wrong. A replacement has to name the contests it is about — the races, offices or chambers — and that is authoring work the desk has not done yet. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.

No level published for this basket

No level published — this book's daily returns cannot be attributed to its own holdings. On 28 days the per-market contributions do not sum to the day's return; the widest break is 2026-08-14, off by 3.18e-3. Cash earns nothing here and there are no flows, so that sum is an identity, not an approximation — a gap means the replay and the attribution disagree about what this basket held. The level is withheld until they agree.

Basket level · official print52 held · close 2026-09-05
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
—
Since inception
—
Cost to cross
0.44pts
Holdings marked
76.9% of 52
1 day
—
7 day
—
Markets held
52
Settled
5
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
—
Inception
2026-08-01
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
0

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 52 markets

held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c1.0¢ spread · 7.9k/3.6k within 5¢28c−5.0%↗
  • Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c0.2¢ spread · 14.2k/3300.7k within 5¢96c+2.7%↗
  • Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 63c1.0¢ spread · 60.4k/31.1k within 5¢65c+3.2%↗
  • Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?polymarket · YES · entry 39c14c−62.3%↗
  • Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c32 sessions stale96c0.0%↗
  • Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c49c−13.3%↗
  • Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 23c23c0.0%↗
  • Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 93c32 sessions stale93c0.0%↗
  • Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 56c1.0¢ spread · 34.1k/76.8k within 5¢50c−10.8%↗
  • Trump out as President before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 7c1.0¢ spread · 3203.4k/184.0k within 5¢6c−15.4%↗
  • Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 67c1.0¢ spread · 95.0k/101.0k within 5¢69c+2.2%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 86c1.0¢ spread · 232.3k/179.0k within 5¢88c+2.3%↗
  • Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c1.0¢ spread · 7.9k/3.6k within 5¢28c−5.0%↗
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepolymarket · YES · entry 45c1.0¢ spread · 53.5k/41.7k within 5¢50c+11.2%↗
  • Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 30c0.1¢ spread · 138.7k/9.1k within 5¢35c+19.0%↗
  • Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c0.2¢ spread · 14.2k/3300.7k within 5¢96c+2.6%↗
  • Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · YES · entry 49c1.5¢ spread · 2.0k/6.5k within 5¢48c−1.5%↗
  • Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 63c1.0¢ spread · 60.4k/31.1k within 5¢65c+3.2%↗
  • Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c32 sessions stale56c0.0%↗
  • Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 96c0.1¢ spread · 43.7k/95.4k within 5¢97c+1.2%↗
  • Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?polymarket · YES · entry 73c1.0¢ spread · 679/928 within 5¢83c+13.8%↗
  • Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 16c32 sessions stale16c0.0%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 67c32 sessions stale67c0.0%↗
  • Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 9.0k/25.6k within 5¢89c+11.3%↗
  • Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?polymarket · YES · entry 36c1.0¢ spread · 14.5k/10.1k within 5¢19c−47.9%↗
  • Democratic Party — Which party will win the U.S. House?gemini · YES · entry 85c1.0¢ spread · 3.9k/3.8k within 5¢85c0.0%↗
  • Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 81c32 sessions stale81c0.0%↗
  • Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?polymarket · YES · entry 35c0.3¢ spread · 2.4k/2.2k within 5¢40c+16.8%↗
  • Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 69c31c−55.8%↗
  • Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 18.1k/9.0k within 5¢64c+5.0%↗
  • Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1.0¢ spread · 30.8k/3.0k within 5¢4c−33.3%↗
  • Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 18c32 sessions stale18c0.0%↗
  • Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?polymarket · YES · entry 28c1c−95.4%↗
  • Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?polymarket · YES · entry 83c1.0¢ spread · 25.6k/26.7k within 5¢81c−2.4%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 62c32 sessions stale62c0.0%↗
  • Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 54c2.0¢ spread · 4.8k/18.5k within 5¢52c−2.8%↗
  • Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?polymarket · YES · entry 38c2.0¢ spread · 2.3k/4.1k within 5¢38c+1.3%↗
  • Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 94c1.1¢ spread · 7.1k/45.7k within 5¢98c+4.5%↗
  • Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 72c1.0¢ spread · 2.9k/3.1k within 5¢71c−1.4%↗
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?polymarket · YES · entry 39c38c−2.6%↗
  • Before 2027? — Will crypto market structure legislation become law?gemini · YES · entry 33c1.0¢ spread · 1.6k/2.1k within 5¢17c−49.2%↗
  • Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 95c1.0¢ spread · 5.2k/655 within 5¢96c+1.1%↗
  • Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?polymarket · YES · entry 62c1.0¢ spread · 5.9k/9.1k within 5¢49c−21.1%↗
  • Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 96c1.0¢ spread · 254/921 within 5¢96c0.0%↗
  • Before 2027 — Will the US buy at least part of Greenland?gemini · YES · entry 4c3.0¢ spread · 165/971 within 5¢5c+28.6%↗
  • Xavier Becerra — California Governor winner?gemini · YES · entry 96c1.0¢ spread · 1.4k/10.5k within 5¢97c+1.0%↗
  • Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 57c3.0¢ spread · 297/275 within 5¢47c−19.1%↗
  • Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c83c+49.2%↗
  • Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 12c32 sessions stale12c0.0%↗
  • Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 83c32 sessions stale83c0.0%↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 52 constituents by weight. See the full book →

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews
Previous
48.30
Band
Moderate
36d Range
4069
Percentile
53th
7d Change
+1.6
Volatility
6.2 pts/d
Streak
2d up
Markets
32
Effective N
8.4
Top Weight
20%
Venues
27 P · 5 G
Method
v3
Basket
32/36
Frozen
2026-08-04
Chain
×1.0216

Daily close

36d published · interactive

36 published close(s) — 0–100 (Mostly decided → Toss-ups). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 11 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 36d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
20406080now48
Projected 14d
47.90
Change
−0.60
80% band
13–82
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 36 readings, slope -0.09/day, projection σ 7.2 pts/d widened for a 36-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

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What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

Checking access…

Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
elections100% · 32

Constituents by weight

top 24 of 32 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-05) · the basket below holds a different set
Show the remaining 4 holdings

Where these markets are covered

18 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. page

The odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.

The view this index measures

Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.

  • How contested are the 2026 midterms?

    Decided early, quiet cycleContested to the wire
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →

WEHI · at a glance

What it is
The toss-up gauge — how contested the election board is right now.
High vs low
Higher = more toss-up races (prices near 50/50). Lower = mostly decided.
Who cares
Political reporters and campaign-watchers gauging how many races are genuine coin-flips.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Sep 5, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Heat Index (WEHI) prints a WET Index Score of 48.5/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”

Full methodology →JSONLive intradayDaily report

Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.