Election Heat Index
WEHIW.E.T. Election Heat Index
How competitive the elections prediction markets are right now.
Higher = more toss-up races (prices near 50/50). Lower = mostly decided.
History · 3 days
Computed from 21 markets (effective 6.8) · 0 Kalshi / 21 Polymarket · $265.9M vol · top holding 20%
The desk read
Rose 11.3 to 62.6 (Elevated).
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +0.0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20% · 20% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
43% · 20% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
49% · 20% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
15% · 11% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
4% · 9% wt · polymarket
- +0.0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
56% · 7% wt · polymarket
WEHI · at a glance
- What it is
- The toss-up gauge — how contested the election board is right now.
- High vs low
- Higher = more toss-up races (prices near 50/50). Lower = mostly decided.
- Who cares
- Political reporters and campaign-watchers gauging how many races are genuine coin-flips.
What's in it today
The live markets feeding today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | polymarket | 20% | 20.0% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | polymarket | 43% | 20.0% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | polymarket | 49% | 20.0% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 15% | 11.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | polymarket | 4% | 8.6% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | polymarket | 56% | 7.4% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 57% | 3.1% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | polymarket | 38% | 2.4% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | polymarket | 14% | 2.3% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | polymarket | 67% | 1.1% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 19% | 1.0% |
| Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | polymarket | 97% | 1.0% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | polymarket | 49% | 0.9% |
| Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | polymarket | 0% | 0.4% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | polymarket | 58% | 0.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 87% | 0.2% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | polymarket | 20% | 0.1% |
| Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | polymarket | 5% | 0.1% |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat? | polymarket | 87% | 0.1% |
| Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? | polymarket | 31% | 0.0% |
| Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by December 31? | polymarket | 81% | 0.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 23, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Heat Index (WEHI) reads 62.6/100 (Elevated), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. Election Heat Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.