Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board
This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Election Heat Index
v3SlateAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 20, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Mostly decided → Toss-ups)
How competitive the elections prediction markets are right now.
Retired — read instead: the published W.E.T. index suite. no like-for-like successor is published. This reading declared the `elections` category and nothing else, admitting all 66 election markets on the 2026-08-13 board, so no market could ever have been evidence that it was wrong. A replacement has to name the contests it is about — the races, offices or chambers — and that is authoring work the desk has not done yet. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.
No level published — this book's daily returns cannot be attributed to its own holdings. On 64 days the per-market contributions do not sum to the day's return; the widest break is 2026-11-04, off by 1.30e-2. Cash earns nothing here and there are no flows, so that sum is an identity, not an approximation — a gap means the replay and the attribution disagree about what this basket held. The level is withheld until they agree.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- 0.38pts
- Holdings marked
- 20.5% of 42
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 42
- Settled
- 15
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 42 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c1.0¢ spread · 15.0k/6.0k within 5¢polymarketYES30c1c−95.8%14.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stale0.2¢ spread · 69.5k/3317.7k within 5¢polymarketYES93c98c+4.9%14.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 63c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 79.7k/54.6k within 5¢polymarketYES63c38c−39.2%14.3%Polymarket ↗
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?polymarket · YES · entry 39cpolymarketYES39c4c−90.3%13.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 96c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c96c0.0%12.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 23cpolymarketYES23c99c+340.0%6.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES93c96c+3.7%6.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 56c3 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 33.7k/169.5k within 5¢polymarketYES56c28c−48.6%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Trump out as President before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 7c1.0¢ spread · 1719.5k/224.7k within 5¢polymarketYES7c4c−40.8%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 30c1.0¢ spread · 15.0k/6.0k within 5¢polymarketYES30c1c−95.8%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 30c0.1¢ spread · 574.0k/237.6k within 5¢polymarketYES30c43c+44.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 93c5 sessions stale0.2¢ spread · 69.5k/3317.7k within 5¢polymarketYES93c98c+4.9%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?polymarket · YES · entry 49c5 sessions stale0.9¢ spread · 223.4k/42.0k within 5¢polymarketYES49c33c−33.5%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 63c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 79.7k/54.6k within 5¢polymarketYES63c38c−39.2%5.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES56c56c0.0%5.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?polymarket · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 43.5k/47.1k within 5¢polymarketYES96c99c+3.1%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 16c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c16c0.0%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 67c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES67c79c+17.2%2.1%Polymarket ↗
- Democratic Party — Which party will win the U.S. House?gemini · YES · entry 85c13 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 3.7k/2.6k within 5¢geminiYES85c92c+8.3%2.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?polymarket · YES · entry 81c34 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c81c0.0%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?polymarket · YES · entry 69c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES69c11c−84.1%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 45.2k/37.1k within 5¢polymarketYES61c95c+57.0%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 5c3 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 27.1k/4.9k within 5¢polymarketYES5c2c−66.7%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 18c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES18c18c0.0%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?polymarket · YES · entry 28c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c1c−96.1%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?polymarket · YES · entry 83c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 107.8k/41.1k within 5¢polymarketYES83c82c−1.2%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 62c27 sessions stalepolymarketYES62c79c+27.6%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?polymarket · YES · entry 54c1.0¢ spread · 14.2k/16.4k within 5¢polymarketYES54c46c−15.0%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 94c15 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 5.2k/32.7k within 5¢polymarketYES94c99c+5.9%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?polymarket · YES · entry 39c28 sessions stalepolymarketYES39c17c−55.8%1.2%Polymarket ↗
- Before 2027? — Will crypto market structure legislation become law?gemini · YES · entry 33c15 sessions stale3.0¢ spread · 1.6k/250 within 5¢geminiYES33c6c−83.1%1.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 95c5 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 5.5k/589 within 5¢polymarketYES95c98c+3.9%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?polymarket · YES · entry 62c5 sessions stale2.0¢ spread · 11.7k/24.4k within 5¢polymarketYES62c99c+61.0%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 96c5 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 605/521 within 5¢polymarketYES96c97c+1.5%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Before 2027 — Will the US buy at least part of Greenland?gemini · YES · entry 4c17 sessions stalegeminiYES4c4c0.0%1.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Xavier Becerra — California Governor winner?gemini · YES · entry 96c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 537/9.5k within 5¢geminiYES96c96c+0.5%1.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?polymarket · YES · entry 57c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 2.0k/502 within 5¢polymarketYES57c51c−12.2%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?polymarket · YES · entry 56c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES56c94c+70.0%1.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?polymarket · YES · entry 12c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c12c0.0%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 83c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES83c61c−26.5%0.8%Polymarket ↗
- Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 22c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES22c22c0.0%0.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?polymarket · YES · entry 18c70 sessions stalepolymarketYES18c18c0.0%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 51d Range
- 4069
- Percentile
- 10th
- 8d Change
- −1.7
- Volatility
- 5.2 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d flat
- Markets
- 27
- Effective N
- 9.2
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Venues
- 24 P · 3 G
- Method
- v3
- Basket
- 27/36
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×1.0685
Daily close
51d published · interactive51 published close(s) — 0–100 (Mostly decided → Toss-ups). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 51d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 45 readings, slope -0.14/day, projection σ 5.1 pts/d widened for a 45-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 27 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
Where these markets are covered
18 of 24 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
- Trump out as President before 2027? — Odds & Probability
- Which party will win the House in 2026? — Odds
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms — Odds & Probability
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Odds
- Next Prime Minister of Sweden — Odds & Probability
- California Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026? — Odds
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Los Angeles Mayoral Election — Odds & Probability
- Alaska Senate Election Winner — Odds & Probability
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
- Next Prime Minister of Romania? — Odds & Probability
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in
- Alaska Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability
- Bulgaria Presidential Election — Odds & Probability
- São Paulo Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner — Odds & Probability
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How close will the November 2026 midterm elections be?
Clear — control is obvious earlyRazor-thin — a few races decide control
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WEHI · at a glance
- What it is
- The toss-up gauge — how contested the election board is right now.
- High vs low
- Higher = more toss-up races (prices near 50/50). Lower = mostly decided.
- Who cares
- Political reporters and campaign-watchers gauging how many races are genuine coin-flips.
Embed this score
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[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/election-heat)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/election-heat"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/election-heat/badge" alt="WEHI — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/election-heat" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WEHI — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Heat Index (WEHI) prints a WET Index Score of 42.1/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.