Commodity Stress — the basket
SlateWeeklyThe real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends -42.3% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give -74.7% — a 32-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 30.0% of 10
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c1c−84.6%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 6c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c1c−83.7%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c1c−79.8%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?polymarket · YES · entry 53c2.0¢ spread · 16.6k/6.0k within 5¢polymarketYES53c11c−79.1%23.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?polymarket · YES · entry 10cpolymarketYES10c1c−90.0%1.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 47c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES47c1c−97.1%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 51c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES51c99c+93.0%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 7c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES7c7c−5.5%0.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in August?polymarket · YES · entry 89c41 sessions stalepolymarketYES89c86c−3.8%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?polymarket · YES · entry 37c17 sessions stalepolymarketYES37c50c+35.6%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Settled · 4
graded outcomes — the basket's realized recordAll markets resolve YES · 4 of 10
a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhereThe chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.
The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.
Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.
This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.
How to read this
The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.
This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.