WARTI

Artist — Culture, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print563 held · close 2026-11-05
969.58−3.04%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
969.58
Since inception
−3.04%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
3.4% of 563
1 day
−0.86%
7 day
−0.77%
Markets held
563
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
51.6%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
53

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 563 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 85c1.0¢ spread · 6.3k/6.7k within 5¢89c+4.7%↗
  • Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c7c−7.6%↗
  • Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 3.0k/2.4k within 5¢88c+10.0%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c2c−75.7%↗
  • Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 72c0.3¢ spread · 2.9k/7.7k within 5¢95c+33.0%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c2c−58.9%↗
  • Will Bruno Mars be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−50.0%↗
  • Will Beyoncé have 5200000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c26 sessions stale99c+0.5%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny be the third most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−76.5%↗
  • Will Olivia Rodrigo be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c1c−61.5%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny be the second most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c3c−68.5%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 17c20c+21.2%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift have 26500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 87c2 sessions stale97c+11.5%↗
  • Will Rihanna have 12250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale98c+4.3%↗
  • Will The Beatles have 4800000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c26 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will Eminem have 10000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 75c2 sessions stale89c+18.7%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c8c+29.8%↗
  • Will Kendrick Lamar be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c3c−46.8%↗
  • Will Olivia Dean have 8000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c26 sessions stale80c−16.7%↗
  • Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 73c76c+4.8%↗
  • Will Frank Ocean have 3500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c26 sessions stale80c−17.9%↗
  • Will Odd Mob have 115000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 87c2 sessions stale51c−41.4%↗
  • Will Chris Stussy have 190000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale85c−11.5%↗
  • Will SZA be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−52.4%↗
  • Will Mau P have 235000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale84c−11.6%↗
  • Will Don Toliver have 9500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 6c2 sessions stale50c+725.0%↗
  • Will The Beatles have 4900000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c26 sessions stale80c−17.2%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny have 32500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 71c2 sessions stale52c−26.2%↗
  • Will 2Pac have 3500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 93c4 sessions stale94c+1.6%↗
  • Will 2Pac have 3400000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c6 sessions stale98c+3.7%↗
  • Will Tyler, The Creator have 4000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale96c+1.6%↗
  • Will Lady Gaga have 10500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stale96c+3.8%↗
  • Will Lady Gaga have 10250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c3 sessions stale97c+2.1%↗
  • Will Lady Gaga have 10750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stale93c+2.2%↗
  • Will Frank Ocean have 3700000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 97c26 sessions stale80c−17.6%↗
  • Will Tyler, The Creator have 4300000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale78c−17.6%↗
  • Will Hamdi have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 14c2 sessions stale27c+86.2%↗
  • Will Post Malone have 6750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 97c2 sessions stale98c+1.0%↗
  • Will nimino have 260000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale96c+1.6%↗
  • Will Hamdi have 47500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 12c2 sessions stale36c+208.7%↗
  • Will it's murph have 170000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 50c2 sessions stale14c−71.0%↗
  • Will it's murph have 140000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale99c+2.6%↗
  • Will Michael Bibi have 32500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 38c2 sessions stale97c+158.7%↗
  • Will Hamdi have 35000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 64c4 sessions stale52c−18.9%↗
  • Will Daniel Allan have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 50c2 sessions stale17c−67.0%↗
  • Will Daniel Allan have 50000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 31c2 sessions stale19c−39.3%↗
  • Will it's murph have 175000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 40c2 sessions stale14c−64.6%↗
  • Will Odd Mob have 130000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 73c2 sessions stale27c−63.4%↗
  • Will Harry Styles have 8750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 12c2 sessions stale38c+212.5%↗
  • Will SZA have 6750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stale80c−12.1%↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 563 constituents by weight.

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 563

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent
95.10%
Π of the individual probabilities
True range · any correlation
95.0–99.0%
Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 4.0pp wide
YESWill Beyoncé have 4900000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill Justin Bieber have 15500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill Bruno Mars have 12500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill nimino have 195000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill Sabrina Carpenter have 8000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.