WARTI

Artist — Culture, inside six months — the basket

SlateExperimentalStanding

The real markets behind this index, across every venue that lists them, tracked as one spread. Instead of reading a single contract, you read the theme — which is what a multi-week position is actually exposed to. Each holding links straight to its venue; W.E.T. never handles orders, you trade at the exchange.

Basket level · official print563 held · close 2026-09-08
971.82−2.82%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
971.82
Since inception
−2.82%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
3.4% of 563
1 day
−0.48%
7 day
−1.93%
Markets held
563
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
51.5%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
18

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 563 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 85c1.0¢ spread · 4.3k/5.0k within 5¢88c+2.9%↗
  • Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c8c+7.0%↗
  • Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 80c1.0¢ spread · 5.1k/6.7k within 5¢80c−0.6%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c4c−52.0%↗
  • Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 72c0.1¢ spread · 2.8k/6.7k within 5¢84c+16.8%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c2c−56.7%↗
  • Will Bruno Mars be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 2c2c−12.5%↗
  • Will Beyoncé have 5200000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stale98c−0.5%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny be the third most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−80.4%↗
  • Will Olivia Rodrigo be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3c2c−23.1%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny be the second most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 10c6c−40.0%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift be the second most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 17c18c+6.1%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift have 26500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 87c2 sessions stale87c0.0%↗
  • Will Rihanna have 12250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale91c−2.7%↗
  • Will The Beatles have 4800000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will Eminem have 10000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 75c2 sessions stale75c−0.7%↗
  • Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c7c+8.1%↗
  • Will Kendrick Lamar be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c1c−78.7%↗
  • Will Olivia Dean have 8000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale97c+0.5%↗
  • Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 73c75c+2.8%↗
  • Will Frank Ocean have 3500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 98c2 sessions stale98c0.0%↗
  • Will Odd Mob have 115000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 87c2 sessions stale61c−30.5%↗
  • Will Chris Stussy have 190000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale93c−3.1%↗
  • Will SZA be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 2c1c−52.4%↗
  • Will Mau P have 235000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale94c−1.1%↗
  • Will Don Toliver have 9500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 6c2 sessions stale9c+41.7%↗
  • Will The Beatles have 4900000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale94c−2.6%↗
  • Will Bad Bunny have 32500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 71c2 sessions stale73c+2.8%↗
  • Will 2Pac have 3500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stale91c−1.6%↗
  • Will 2Pac have 3400000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale91c−3.7%↗
  • Will Tyler, The Creator have 4000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale97c+2.1%↗
  • Will Lady Gaga have 10500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 93c2 sessions stale91c−2.2%↗
  • Will Lady Gaga have 10250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 95c2 sessions stale93c−1.6%↗
  • Will Lady Gaga have 10750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stale89c−2.7%↗
  • Will Frank Ocean have 3700000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 97c2 sessions stale95c−1.6%↗
  • Will Tyler, The Creator have 4300000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale92c−2.1%↗
  • Will Hamdi have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 14c2 sessions stale20c+34.5%↗
  • Will Post Malone have 6750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 97c2 sessions stale94c−3.1%↗
  • Will nimino have 260000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 94c2 sessions stale91c−3.2%↗
  • Will Hamdi have 47500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 12c2 sessions stale14c+17.4%↗
  • Will it's murph have 170000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 50c2 sessions stale45c−10.0%↗
  • Will it's murph have 140000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 96c2 sessions stale91c−5.2%↗
  • Will Michael Bibi have 32500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 38c2 sessions stale72c+90.7%↗
  • Will Hamdi have 35000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 64c2 sessions stale48c−24.4%↗
  • Will Daniel Allan have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 50c2 sessions stale39c−23.0%↗
  • Will Daniel Allan have 50000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 31c2 sessions stale22c−29.5%↗
  • Will it's murph have 175000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 40c2 sessions stale38c−3.8%↗
  • Will Odd Mob have 130000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 73c2 sessions stale55c−24.8%↗
  • Will Harry Styles have 8750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 12c2 sessions stale13c+8.3%↗
  • Will SZA have 6750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stale91c0.0%↗

Showing the 50 heaviest of 563 constituents by weight.

All markets resolve YES · 5 of 563

a computed statistic about this watchlist — not an instrument, not offered anywhere

The chance that every one of these markets resolves YES. It is the mathematical opposite of the basket above: the basket is a weighted mean, where one loss doesn't zero it; this is a product, where every market must land. Same markets, opposite risk shape — which is the whole reason to show them together.

The markets shown are this index's most likely holdings, added while the joint probability stays above 1%. Ranking by portfolio weight instead would be arbitrary here, since equal-notional weights are near-identical by design.

If independent
94.62%
Π of the individual probabilities
True range · any correlation
94.5–98.5%
Fréchet–Hoeffding bounds · 4.0pp wide
YESWill Beyoncé have 5500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill Justin Bieber have 15500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill Bruno Mars have 12500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill nimino have 195000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%
YESWill KETTAMA have 245000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?99%

Multiplying probabilities assumes the markets are independent — which is precisely wrong for markets grouped by a shared theme, since correlation is why they sit in one index. The range is therefore the honest answer: the true joint probability sits inside it under any correlation structure, with no covariance estimate required.

This is a statistic, not a product. W.E.T. does not offer, quote, accept or route a combined position in these markets, and no venue is quoting one here — the figures are computed by W.E.T. from individual market prices. Each market above trades on its own venue, individually, at the links in the holdings table. Data, not advice.

How to read this

The basket holds equal notional in each market from its inception mark, so every holding counts equally in return terms rather than the biggest contract dominating. The level is that combined position, re-marked daily at the two-sided mid and rebased to 1000. Settled markets convert to cash at their payoff and wait for the next monthly review.

This is a published benchmark, not an account and not a product: the index is not directly investable. Marks are mid quotes before fees, spread and slippage, and no capacity limit is assumed — a real position would differ. W.E.T. is not an exchange and never handles orders. Data, not advice. Full methodology.