W.E.T. Inverse Arizona Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingarizona-football-inside-six-months reads 53.88 against this index’s 46.12. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Arizona's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Arizona club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (10)
- 6 of 6 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.166667. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 6 constituents (cap·n = 0.9000 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 17. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 4297, keyword-miss 12168, category-not-admitted 43, horizon-outside-window 5. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 5 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 12168 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 4297 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 11 of 17 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 7, spread-too-wide 3, below-min-volume 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took force on the `up` case by rule `member-majority`, framing 5 of 6 members and holding 0 of them NO. 5 of 5 framed members carry the `up` case on the declared threshold axis, so this composition measures up; a member the axis frames the other way moves against that and is held NO. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
- the level was chained as a price relative over the PRIOR composition at today's prices: 6 prior member(s), of which 0 could not be priced today and left through the DIVISOR (0 at a venue-reported resolution, 0 at their last governed mark, 0 unpriced on both dates). Price relative 1.028051273 against a gauge basis of 0.461166667; the divisor did not move, there being nothing to absorb in the composition and weight change, so what the level published is the price move and nothing else.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec d2a57f33cf235309 · methodology 7d2635851693f08d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing
As of Nov 14, 2026 · last moved Nov 14, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
The same markets naming Arizona Cardinals, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 973.62
- Since inception
- −2.64%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 26.7% of 15
- 1 day
- +0.05%
- 7 day
- −2.14%
- Markets held
- 15
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 51.4%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 55
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 15 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the season series between the Cardinals and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 77c2 sessions stalepolymarketNO77c63c−18.9%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Arizona Cardinals finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most return yards?polymarket · NO · entry 89cpolymarketNO89c76c−14.6%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the Seahawks during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 97c27 sessions stalepolymarketNO97c96c−1.1%13.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the 49ers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 95c22 sessions stalepolymarketNO95c95c−0.2%12.4%Polymarket ↗
- College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Arizonagemini · NO · entry 93c21 sessions stalegeminiNO93c96c+3.8%11.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Arizona St.gemini · NO · entry 90c21 sessions stalegeminiNO90c98c+8.9%9.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Rams win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 27c15 sessions stalepolymarketNO27c53c+100.0%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and Rams end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 79c15 sessions stalepolymarketNO79c82c+3.8%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 40cpolymarketNO40c47c+17.5%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Arizona Cardinals make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · NO · entry 91cpolymarketNO91c98c+7.9%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the Rams during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 96c15 sessions stalepolymarketNO96c62c−35.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 75cpolymarketNO75c66c−11.2%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- College Football National Championship Winner — Arizonagemini · NO · entry 98c15 sessions stalegeminiNO98c99c+1.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- College Football National Championship Winner — Arizona St.gemini · NO · entry 98c16 sessions stalegeminiNO98c50c−48.7%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- National League Champion — Arizonagemini · NO · entry 98c44 sessions stalegeminiNO98c98c0.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 1976.30 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.83 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- 44.86
- Band
- Moderate
- 12d Range
- 4386
- Percentile
- 33th
- 9d Change
- +0.4
- Volatility
- 11.6 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 6
- Effective N
- 6.0
- Top Weight
- 17%
- Venues
- 6 P
- Method
- v1
Indicative tape · 6 sessions
97 hourly readings since 2026-11-04 · not the governed closeINDICATIVEHourly readings that reprice the roster and frozen weights of the last governed close — only prices moved. Each one was computed and recorded at the timestamp it carries; nothing here is reconstructed from venue history. They carry no sentinel screen, enter no ledger and join no checksum chain, and a refused hour breaks the line rather than being drawn through. The daily WET Close is the official value.
Daily close
12d published · interactive12 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 81 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 12d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 12 readings, slope -0.38/day, projection σ 16.7 pts/d widened for a 12-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — InsidersInsiders
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — InsidersInsiders
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 6 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWARI2 · at a glance
- What it is
- The same markets naming Arizona Cardinals, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how arizona-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Nov 14, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse Arizona Football Index 6mo (WARI2) prints a WET Index Score of 46.1/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.