Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Arizona Football Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
arizona-football-inside-six-months-inverse reads — against this index’s —. Same markets, opposite side.
32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The board stops listing markets that name Arizona's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A Arizona club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (10)
- weight coverage κ = 87.0% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 19. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 277, keyword-miss 9104, horizon-outside-window 3. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 3 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 9104 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - 277 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
- eligibility: 9 of 19 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 6, below-min-volume 3. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 10 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 10 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no complement is available: the base printed nothing (insufficient_data). The identity needs two numbers, and an absent one is never treated as a zero.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 0847cf074e677311 · methodology ca28553bb28c9215 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
weight coverage κ = 87.0% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
Last published reading: 14.18 on 2026-09-09. It is not carried forward.
15 sports markets naming Arizona Cardinals, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1039.75
- Since inception
- +3.98%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 62.5% of 16
- 1 day
- +6.39%
- 7 day
- +6.17%
- Markets held
- 16
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 48.1%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 33
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 16 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the season series between the Cardinals and Seahawks end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 23cpolymarketYES23c40c+76.2%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Arizona Cardinals finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most return yards?polymarket · YES · entry 12cpolymarketYES12c10c−13.0%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the Seahawks during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 3c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c4c+37.0%13.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the 49ers during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 5cpolymarketYES5c5c+3.3%12.4%Polymarket ↗
- College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Arizonagemini · YES · entry 8c2 sessions stalegeminiYES8c4c−53.3%11.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- College Football Playoff Qualifiers — Arizona St.gemini · YES · entry 11c2 sessions stalegeminiYES11c9c−19.0%9.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Seahawks win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 73cpolymarketYES73c75c+2.1%5.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Rams win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 74cpolymarketYES74c80c+8.2%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and Rams end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 22cpolymarketYES22c21c−4.7%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 60c3.0¢ spread · 6.6k/620 within 5¢polymarketYES60c65c+8.3%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Arizona Cardinals make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · YES · entry 9cpolymarketYES9c7c−20.1%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Cardinals win the season series against the Rams during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c4c−1.2%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c68c+168.1%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- College Football National Championship Winner — Arizonagemini · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalegeminiYES3c2c−40.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- College Football National Championship Winner — Arizona St.gemini · YES · entry 3c2 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
- National League Champion — Arizonagemini · YES · entry 3c22 sessions stalegeminiYES3c3c0.0%0.8%Gemini Predictions ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedConstituents by weight
all 10 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWARIZ · at a glance
- What it is
- 15 sports markets naming Arizona Cardinals, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how arizona-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Arizona Football Index 6mo (WARIZ) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.