Loading…
Trader Tools · The Translator
A prediction-market contract’s price in cents IS its implied probability: a 63¢ YES contract means the market prices a 63% chance — equivalent to −170 American or 1.59 decimal odds.
63%
implied probability
The market’s verdict
NARROW FAVORITEA lean, not a lock. Favorites at this price lose all the time.
A contract priced at 63¢ pays $1.00 if the market resolves YES — an implied 63% probability, equivalent to -170 American / 1.59 decimal odds (before venue fees).
Cents → probability: price ÷ 100. A $0.63 contract = 63% implied probability, because it pays $1.00 on YES.
Probability → American odds: favorites (p ≥ 50%): −100p ÷ (1−p); underdogs: +100(1−p) ÷ p. 63% → −170.
Probability → decimal odds: 1 ÷ p. 63% → 1.59 (your total payout per $1 staked).
Sportsbook lines embed the book’s margin, so converting both sides of a sportsbook market will sum past 100% — prediction-market YES/NO prices sum to ~100¢ instead, with venue fees taken separately. To see what fees do to your real breakeven, use the breakeven calculator.
Directly: the price in cents IS the implied probability. A YES contract trading at 63¢ pays $1.00 if the event happens, so the market is pricing a 63% chance. That one-to-one mapping is the cleanest thing about prediction markets versus sportsbook odds.
For negative odds (favorites): probability = odds ÷ (odds + 100), using the absolute value — so −170 implies 170/270 ≈ 63%. For positive odds (underdogs): probability = 100 ÷ (odds + 100) — so +250 implies 100/350 ≈ 28.6%. Note sportsbook odds embed the book’s margin (vig), so the two sides sum to more than 100%.
Prediction-market prices come from an order book of traders rather than a bookmaker’s line, so there is no built-in vig — though venue fees, liquidity, and different resolution rules still create gaps. Comparing the two is a quick read on where the crowd and the books disagree.
Educational tool, not advice. See live markets on the predictions desk.