Vallejo vs Damas: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 14, 2026
As of July 14, 2026, the prediction market implies a 94% chance of Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 91%, 3 pts apart, on $95.7K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $95.7K traded
94%
Implied
Kalshi
94%
Polymarket
91%
Cross-venue gap: Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 3 pts on this outcome — the divergence is the edge. See every gap →
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W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 14, 2026 snapshot · 46/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 20/30 | $95.7K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 14/20 | Kalshi 94% vs Polymarket 91% — a 3-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at 94% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The two venues disagree by 3 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence worth watching.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Tuesday, July 14 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Adolfo Daniel Vallejo the favorite in Vallejo vs Damas, pricing the outcome at 94% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday, July 14. Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 3 pts on the favorite — that gap is the cross-venue read. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 18 tracked markets, $96K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo leads at 94%, a strong favorite, ahead of Miguel Damas at 8%. The two venues disagree by 3 points on the favorite — a cross-venue divergence that can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 94% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 94¢ implies a 94% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, July 14; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line, and compare the two venues before assuming the gap is free money.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vallejo vs Damas?
As of Tuesday, July 14, Kalshi and Polymarket price Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at 94% implied probability, though Kalshi and Polymarket differ by 3 points. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Adolfo Daniel Vallejo?
The prediction market implies a 94% chance of Adolfo Daniel Vallejo on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday, July 14 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. Right now they diverge by 3 points, which can reflect different liquidity, fees, or resolution rules. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/vallejo-vs-damas-odds-2026-07-21" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Vallejo vs Damas — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/vallejo-vs-damas-odds-2026-07-21?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=vallejo-vs-damas-odds-2026-07-21">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.