Schwaerzler vs Rodionov: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 20, 2026
As of July 20, 2026, the prediction market implies a 61% chance of Jurij Rodionov — Kalshi 61%, Polymarket 60%, 1 pt apart, on $35.4K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Jurij Rodionov — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $35.4K traded
61%
Implied
Kalshi
61%
Polymarket
60%
Live market
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W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 20, 2026 snapshot · 47/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 15/30 | $35.4K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 18/20 | Kalshi 61% vs Polymarket 60% — a 1-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Jurij Rodionov at 61% implied probability across Kalshi and Polymarket.
- $35K has traded across 17 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Monday, July 20 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Jurij Rodionov the favorite in Schwaerzler vs Rodionov, pricing the outcome at 61% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, July 20. Kalshi and Polymarket are priced in line with each other. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 17 tracked markets, $35K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Jurij Rodionov leads at 61%, a clear favorite, ahead of Joel Schwaerzler at 40%. Kalshi and Polymarket are trading in line, which reads as a consensus price rather than an edge.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 61% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 61¢ implies a 61% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Monday, July 20; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi and Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Schwaerzler vs Rodionov?
As of Monday, July 20, Kalshi and Polymarket price Jurij Rodionov at 61% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Jurij Rodionov?
The prediction market implies a 61% chance of Jurij Rodionov on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday, July 20 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
Both venues list this event, so you can compare their prices directly. They are currently close, which reads as a consensus price. When two venues disagree on the same outcome, the gap itself is information.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?
A market-native comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket: regulation, funding rails, coverage, fees, liquidity, settlement, and which platform fits your trading.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/schwaerzler-vs-rodionov-odds-2026-07-27?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=schwaerzler-vs-rodionov-odds-2026-07-27">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.