Popyrin vs Tabilo: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated September 2, 2026
Popyrin vs Tabilo prediction market odds: Alejandro Tabilo favored at 57% implied probability on one venue listing. Venue-attributed odds, volume, and event context.
Driving coverage
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One cached fetch of the venue-attributed rows W.E.T. matched to this event. Filter the returned rows by type; this panel does not poll, subscribe, or claim exhaustive venue coverage.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 2, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 50% | — |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 46% | — |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 45% | — |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 45% | — |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Moneyline | Polymarket | 43% | $9.9K |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | Polymarket | 69% | — |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | Polymarket | 66% | — |
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 36.5 | Polymarket | 59% | — |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 2, 2026 snapshot · 20/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Kalshi listing prices Alejandro Tabilo at 57% implied probability.
- Venue volume remains separate because this event combines dollar volume and contract counts.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Wednesday, September 2 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Alejandro Tabilo the favorite in Popyrin vs Tabilo, pricing the outcome at 57% implied probability on one venue listing as of Wednesday, September 2. Related venue listings are shown separately; W.E.T. has not confirmed them as the same outcome for a numerical comparison. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 28 tracked market rows, Venue volume remains separate because this event combines dollar volume and contract counts. Alejandro Tabilo leads at 57%, a clear favorite, ahead of Alexei Popyrin at 43%. Related venue listings remain separate until the canonical graph confirms outcome and settlement-basis equivalence.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 57% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 57¢ implies a 57% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Wednesday, September 2; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Popyrin vs Tabilo?
As of Wednesday, September 2, One venue listing prices Alejandro Tabilo at 57% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Alejandro Tabilo?
The prediction market implies a 57% chance of Alejandro Tabilo on one venue listing as of Wednesday, September 2 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated snapshot records Polymarket only. W.E.T. publishes no cross-venue comparison without the same event, outcome, and resolution terms observed on another venue. W.E.T. publishes them separately until canonical identity and settlement-basis checks confirm that a numerical comparison is valid.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
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