Minnesota vs Seattle: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated August 6, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (August 6, 2026) was a 61% implied probability for Seattle on Kalshi, with 116.4K contracts in venue-reported volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Seattle — market favorite
Kalshi · 116.4K contracts reported volume
61%
Implied
The book — how tightly this is priced
Kalshi snapshot sum
101%
near 100 — one Kalshi outcome snapshot · two-way
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled August 6, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Seattle | Kalshi | 61% | 70.6K contracts |
Minnesota | Kalshi | 40% | 45.8K contracts |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 37/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | 116.4K venue-reported contracts. Contract counts are not converted to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 16/20 | 2 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 3/15 | 2 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (2)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Trump Blames Minnesota, Not Iran, for Cyberattack, Despite Initial Investigation
New York Times · Jul 31, 2026
- Missteps Mount in Justice Dept.’s Case Against Minnesota Anti-ICE Protesters
New York Times · Jul 31, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
Prediction desk tools
The published reading above is complete. Account-aware tools load after the article settles so identity work cannot compete with the answer.
Checking desk access…
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Seattle at 61% implied probability on Kalshi.
- The odds moved from 62% at the start of coverage to 61% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 61% implied probability for Seattle on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market never fully made up its mind: Seattle closed at just 61%. The attributed event snapshot reports 116.4K contracts in venue-native volume.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 2 days: Seattle opened our coverage at 62%, ranged between 61% and 62%, and closed at 61%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Minnesota vs Seattle?
The market closed with Seattle at 61% implied probability on Kalshi. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Minnesota vs Seattle right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 61% for Seattle. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?
A market-native comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket: regulation, funding rails, coverage, fees, liquidity, settlement, and which platform fits your trading.
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Preview
<iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/predictions/minnesota-vs-seattle-odds-2026-08-04" width="480" height="200" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Minnesota vs Seattle — prediction market odds by World Event Trading"></iframe>
<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/minnesota-vs-seattle-odds-2026-08-04?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=minnesota-vs-seattle-odds-2026-08-04">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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