Kasatkina vs Badosa: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated September 8, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (September 8, 2026) was a 90% implied probability for Paula Badosa on Kalshi.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Paula Badosa — market favorite
Kalshi
90%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled September 8, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Set 2 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 55% | $150 |
US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Moneyline | Polymarket | 9% | $486.2K |
Paula Badosa | Kalshi | 90% | 1M contracts |
US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Set Handicap +/-1.5 | Polymarket | 75% | $51 |
US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Game Spread +/-2.5 | Polymarket | 75% | $5 |
Completed Match | Polymarket | 50% | $2.9K |
US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Set 2 O/U 10.5 | Polymarket | 50% | — |
US Open WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa Match O/U 21.5 | Polymarket | 25% | $400 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 32/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 10/30 | The event combines unlike venue-native volume units. W.E.T. does not add contracts to dollars, so this component remains at the documented neutral 10/30. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 attributable day tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Paula Badosa at 90% implied probability on Kalshi.
- Dollar volume and contract counts were not combined into a synthetic event total.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 90% implied probability for Paula Badosa on Kalshi.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: Paula Badosa at 90% implied probability. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; no mixed total is published.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 90% for Paula Badosa. Implied probability is the attributed venue listing's price read as a percentage. It repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Kasatkina vs Badosa?
The market closed with Paula Badosa at 90% implied probability on Kalshi. That was W.E.T.'s final attributed listing observation before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Kasatkina vs Badosa right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 90% for Paula Badosa. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
Markets & sources
Best Prediction Market Platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket & Beyond
How Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, PredictIt, Manifold, and Metaculus compare on regulation, funding rails, liquidity, and fees — no hype, just trade-offs.
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Preview
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/kasatkina-vs-badosa-odds-2026-09-06?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=kasatkina-vs-badosa-odds-2026-09-06">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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