France vs. England: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 20, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (July 20, 2026) was a 67% implied probability for Team to Win on Polymarket, on $16.4M in traded volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Team to Win — market favorite
Polymarket · $16.4M traded
67%
Implied
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 20, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
France Moneyline | Polymarket | 52% | $2.9M |
Team to Win Moneyline | Polymarket | 67% | $2.6M |
Draw (France vs. England) Moneyline | Polymarket | 25% | $868.7K |
England Moneyline | Polymarket | 25% | $640.8K |
France 3 - 1 England | Polymarket | 8% | $937.9K |
France 0 - 0 England | Polymarket | 4% | $830.8K |
O/U 3.5 Totals | Polymarket | 45% | $705.5K |
France 2 - 1 England | Polymarket | 11% | $584.5K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 75/100 · Strong Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $16.4M in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 20/20 | 3 live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 5/15 | 3 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
Citable signals (3)
Live wire headlines lexically matched to this event — the corroboration behind the news component. Every link is the original source.
- From France vs England to Messi vs Yamal: World Cup final weekend
Al Jazeera · Jul 18, 2026
- France vs England: Deschamps set for final World Cup match as Zidane waits
Al Jazeera · Jul 18, 2026
- Tuchel: England carry ‘scars’ of World Cup heartbreak into France playoff
Al Jazeera · Jul 18, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Team to Win at 67% implied probability on Polymarket.
- The odds moved from 65% at the start of coverage to 67% at close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 67% implied probability for Team to Win on Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Team to Win at 67% — favored, but not a lock. Across the event's tracked markets, $16.4M changed hands.
How the odds moved
W.E.T. tracked this market for 3 days: Team to Win opened our coverage at 65%, ranged between 65% and 67%, and closed at 67%. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, money-weighted estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for France vs. England?
The market closed with Team to Win at 67% implied probability on Polymarket. That was the final money-weighted read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get France vs. England right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 67% for Team to Win. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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