Bueno vs Pereira: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 21, 2026
As of July 21, 2026, the prediction market implies a 76% chance of Gonzalo Bueno on Kalshi, on $53.3K in traded volume.
Implied probability & market prediction
Market favorite
Gonzalo Bueno — market favorite
Kalshi · $53.3K traded
76%
Implied
Live market
View the live market on Kalshi
Prices move continuously — open Kalshi for the current line.
Odds — full market snapshotas of July 21, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Tiago Pereira | Kalshi | 27% | $37.5K |
Gonzalo Bueno | Kalshi | 76% | $15.9K |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. Odds move continuously; this is a dated snapshot — open the live venue for the current price.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the July 21, 2026 snapshot · 30/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 17/30 | $53.3K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 8/20 | Priced on one venue only — no independent book to check the number against, so this component sits at a neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 3/15 | 2 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 2/15 | 1 day of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Prediction markets price Gonzalo Bueno at 76% implied probability on Kalshi.
- $53K has traded across 2 markets on this event.
- This is implied probability from live trading as of Tuesday, July 21 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
Prediction markets make Gonzalo Bueno the favorite in Bueno vs Pereira, pricing the outcome at 76% implied probability on Kalshi as of Tuesday, July 21. Here is the live market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 2 tracked markets, $53K has changed hands on this event — light but tradable interest. Gonzalo Bueno leads at 76%, a strong favorite, ahead of Tiago Pereira at 27%. It currently trades on Kalshi; if it also lists on the other venue, the cross-venue gap becomes a second signal to watch.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 76% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 76¢ implies a 76% chance the market resolves YES: a live, tradable estimate of probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Tuesday, July 21; odds move continuously, so open Kalshi for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bueno vs Pereira?
As of Tuesday, July 21, Kalshi price Gonzalo Bueno at 76% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Gonzalo Bueno?
The prediction market implies a 76% chance of Gonzalo Bueno on Kalshi as of Tuesday, July 21 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This event is currently listed on Kalshi. When an event trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket, W.E.T. shows the cross-venue divergence, because a gap on the same outcome can signal an edge or a difference in the fine print.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are live prices from a prediction market, shown as implied probability — a reflection of what traders are collectively paying, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/bueno-vs-pereira-odds-2026-08-04?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=bueno-vs-pereira-odds-2026-08-04">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
Watch this market move
Live odds, catalysts, and cross-venue divergence on Kalshi and Polymarket — then argue about what's priced in with the crowd.