Borges vs Luz: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin V King · Updated July 30, 2026
Final prediction market odds for Borges vs Luz: Nuno Borges closed at 94% implied probability on one venue listing. Settled-market archive — how the odds…
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 30, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz Moneyline | Polymarket | 94% | $20.7K |
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz Set 1 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 87% | $197 |
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz Set 2 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 88% | — |
Orlando Luz | Kalshi | 8% | 118.4K contracts |
Nuno Borges | Kalshi | 94% | 30.9K contracts |
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | Polymarket | 79% | $4.8K |
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | Polymarket | 20% | $58 |
Completed Match | Polymarket | 50% | — |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 20/100 · Thin Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 0/30 | No positive venue-reported volume was available at snapshot time. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Everything above stays free — the score, the component breakdown, any eligible confirmed comparison, and the methodology. W.E.T. Premium doesn't unlock a hidden number; it adds the tooling that turns a reading into a workflow: the Crowd–Market Gap Tracker, dated Index Desk reads and drivers, and the Community crowd–market gap value and direction.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Nuno Borges at 94% implied probability on one venue listing.
- Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; W.E.T. publishes no mixed event total.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 94% implied probability for Nuno Borges on one venue listing.
The market's final read
The market closed all but certain: Nuno Borges at 94% implied probability. Dollar volume and contract counts remain separate; W.E.T. publishes no mixed event total.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 94% for Nuno Borges. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, venue-attributed estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Borges vs Luz?
The market closed with Nuno Borges at 94% implied probability on one venue listing. That was the final venue-attributed read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Borges vs Luz right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 94% for Nuno Borges. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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Explore retained event intelligence
This page is archival. Use the Event Dashboard to inspect separately dated, venue-attributed listings; numerical comparisons remain identity-gated.