Borges vs Kouame: Prediction, Odds & Probability
By Corbin King · Updated July 22, 2026
This market has settled. Its final read (July 22, 2026) was a 76% implied probability for Nuno Borges — Kalshi 76%, Polymarket 74%, 2 pts apart, on $31.1K in traded volume.
Final implied probability
Market favorite
Nuno Borges — market favorite
Kalshi + Polymarket · $31.1K traded
76%
Implied
Kalshi
76%
Polymarket
74%
Final odds — settled market snapshotsettled July 22, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame Moneyline | Polymarket | 74% | $12K |
Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame Set 2 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 68% | — |
Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame Set 1 Winner Moneyline | Polymarket | 68% | — |
Nuno Borges | Kalshi | 76% | $10.4K |
Moise Kouame | Kalshi | 26% | $8.6K |
Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame Set 1 O/U 10.5 | Polymarket | 26% | $30 |
Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | Polymarket | 37% | $22 |
Completed Match | Polymarket | 50% | $10 |
Implied probability = the market’s YES price read as a percentage. This market has settled — these are the final tracked figures, frozen as a historical archive.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five measurable inputs — traded volume, news corroboration, cross-venue agreement, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the final settled snapshot · 43/100 · Developing Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 15/30 | $31.1K in matched volume across this event's markets. Log-scaled: thin books score near zero, $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 0/20 | No wire headlines matched this event at snapshot time — the price stands alone. |
| Cross-venue agreement | 16/20 | Kalshi 76% vs Polymarket 74% — a 2-pt gap. Two independent order books landing close is the strongest check a price can get. |
| Market coverage | 12/15 | 8 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 0/15 | 0 days of daily probability history on file. A longer tape shows how the price behaves, not just where it sits. |
The W.E.T. Score measures market microstructure — how much money, agreement, coverage, and corroboration sit behind a price. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
Key takeaways
- Final market read: Nuno Borges at 76% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- $31K traded across this event's markets before close.
- This is a settled-market archive — the market’s final pre-close read, not the venue’s official resolution.
This market has settled. The final prediction-market read before close was 76% implied probability for Nuno Borges on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The market's final read
The market's final lean was Nuno Borges at 76% — favored, but not a lock. Across the event's tracked markets, $31K changed hands.
How the odds moved
The final tracked read was 76% for Nuno Borges. Implied probability is the market's price read as a percentage — a live, money-weighted estimate that repriced as news landed, right up until the market closed.
Why settled odds still matter
A settled market is a permanent record of what traders collectively expected before the outcome was known — the raw material for judging how well prediction markets forecast the real world. This page archives the market's final pre-close read; the official resolved outcome is published by the venue itself. Comparing final reads to outcomes across many markets is how prediction-market accuracy is measured.
Browse the live Sports odds & probability desk for markets still trading, or the Event Dashboard for real-time prices. For how these numbers were sourced and computed, see the methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What were the final odds for Borges vs Kouame?
The market closed with Nuno Borges at 76% implied probability on Kalshi and Polymarket. That was the final money-weighted read before the market settled.
Did the prediction market get Borges vs Kouame right?
This page archives the market's final pre-close read — 76% for Nuno Borges. The officially resolved outcome is published by the venue. Comparing final market reads to real outcomes across many events is exactly how prediction-market accuracy is measured, which is why settled archives like this one matter.
Are these odds still live?
No. This market has settled and the figures on this page are frozen as a historical archive. Live markets are on the predictions desk and the Event Dashboard.
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