2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) — Odds
By Corbin V King · Updated September 4, 2026
As of September 4, 2026, the prediction market implies a 25% chance of Aryna Sabalenka on Polymarket, with $9.2M in venue-reported volume.
Implied probability snapshot
Market favorite
Aryna Sabalenka — market favorite
Polymarket · $9.2M reported volume
25%
Implied
Venue listing
View the live market on Polymarket
This W.E.T. observation is dated. Open Polymarket to verify later availability and price changes.
Driving coverage
Open the Newsroom →Fetched venue snapshot — market navigation
One cached fetch of the venue-attributed rows W.E.T. matched to this event. Filter the returned rows by type; this panel does not poll, subscribe, or claim exhaustive venue coverage.
Odds — dated market snapshotas of September 4, 2026
| Outcome | Venue | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
Aryna Sabalenka | Polymarket | 25% | $154.4K |
Coco Gauff | Polymarket | 18% | $158.6K |
Iga Swiatek | Polymarket | 14% | $86.4K |
Jessica Pegula | Polymarket | 8% | $204.9K |
Elena Rybakina | Polymarket | 7% | $288.3K |
Mirra Andreeva | Polymarket | 6% | $151.3K |
Marta Kostyuk | Polymarket | 4% | $59.4K |
Alexandra Eala | Polymarket | 3% | $387.9K |
Amanda Anisimova | Polymarket | 3% | $150K |
Naomi Osaka | Polymarket | 3% | $102.9K |
Linda Noskova | Polymarket | 2% | $77K |
Anastasia Potapova | Polymarket | 1% | $499K |
Qinwen Zheng | Polymarket | 1% | $328.6K |
Elise Mertens | Polymarket | 1% | $100.4K |
Emma Navarro | Polymarket | 1% | $97.8K |
Marie Bouzkova | Polymarket | 1% | $92.8K |
Madison Keys | Polymarket | 1% | $88.2K |
Taylor Townsend | Polymarket | 1% | $64.2K |
Iva Jovic | Polymarket | 1% | $62.3K |
Anna Kalinskaya | Polymarket | 1% | $60.3K |
Sorana Cirstea | Polymarket | 1% | $52.6K |
Cristina Bucsa | Polymarket | 1% | — |
Implied probability = the venue’s YES price read as a percentage at capture. This is a dated observation; use the attributed venue link, when available, to verify later changes.
W.E.T. Score
How much signal is behind this number?
The W.E.T. Score grades the evidence, not the outcome. Five inputs — comparable volume evidence, news corroboration, cross-venue verification, market coverage, and track-record depth — scored against how much verifiable signal sits behind the headline probability.
Scored from the September 4, 2026 snapshot · 71/100 · Strong Signal
| Component | Points | What the data says |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | 30/30 | $9.2M in comparable USD-reported volume. Log-scaled: $1k scores 0, while $1M+ maxes the component. |
| News corroboration | 10/20 | 1 live wire headline lexically matched to this event — real, citable corroboration that the story is moving. |
| Cross-venue verification | 8/20 | No canonical exact-match pair is available for this snapshot. Related listings are not compared, so this component remains at the documented neutral 8/20. |
| Market coverage | 15/15 | 22 tracked markets on this event — more side markets and strikes mean more angles pricing the same story. |
| Track-record depth | 8/15 | 5 attributable days tied to one venue, favorite, and listing key. Legacy unkeyed points earn no depth credit. |
Citable signals (1)
Wire headlines retained with this event snapshot — corroboration behind the news component. Each link is the original source.
- Alcaraz, Sabalenka into US Open last 16 as Williams sisters lose on return
Al Jazeera · Sep 5, 2026
The W.E.T. Score measures evidence quality — comparable volume, verified agreement, coverage, and corroboration behind a price. Venue-reported contract counts are never treated as dollars. It is not a prediction of the outcome, not a rating of whether the favorite wins, and not trading advice: a Thin Signal market can still resolve YES, and a Prime Signal market can still resolve NO. Full weighting and worked examples in the methodology.
The desk layer
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Key takeaways
- One tracked Polymarket listing prices Aryna Sabalenka at 25% implied probability.
- Polymarket reports $9.2M in venue-native event volume.
- This is implied probability from venue prices observed as of Friday, September 4 — not a tip or a forecast of the result.
The prediction market prices 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) at 25% implied probability on Polymarket as of Friday, September 4. Here is the dated market read.
What the prediction market is pricing
Across 22 tracked market rows, Polymarket reports $9.2M in venue-native event volume. Aryna Sabalenka leads at 25%, a longshot, ahead of Coco Gauff at 18%. It currently trades on Polymarket; any related listing on another venue remains separate until identity is confirmed.
How sports markets like this settle
Sports markets resolve on the game itself — a final result, a score line, a player total. The implied probability is what traders are collectively paying for each outcome, repriced live as lineups, injuries, and in-game events land.
What could move it
Team news and injuries, roster and lineup changes, weather for outdoor games, and the way the line drifts from open to close as sharp money arrives are what move these prices. Because real money is on the line, the price reprices quickly around these catalysts — which is what makes 25% a live estimate rather than a settled call.
Reading the number
A contract at 25¢ implies a 25% chance the market resolves YES: a dated venue observation of implied probability, not a forecast or a tip from W.E.T. The figure above is a snapshot as of Friday, September 4; odds move continuously, so open Polymarket for the current line.
Track this and every Sports market on the live Event Dashboard, or browse all Sports odds & probability. For the mechanics, see the prediction markets guide.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds for 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)?
As of Friday, September 4, Polymarket price Aryna Sabalenka at 25% implied probability. Implied probability is the market's YES price read as a percentage; it moves continuously, so check the live venue for the current line.
What is the probability of Aryna Sabalenka?
The prediction market implies a 25% chance of Aryna Sabalenka on Polymarket as of Friday, September 4 — that is what traders are collectively pricing, not a forecast from W.E.T.
What is the difference between the Kalshi and Polymarket odds?
This dated observation includes Polymarket. A second venue listing is shown separately until W.E.T. confirms same-outcome equivalence.
Are these odds a prediction of the outcome?
No. These are dated venue observations shown as implied probability — a record of what traders were collectively paying at the stated time, not advice or a forecast from W.E.T. Prediction market trading involves risk of loss; always verify current prices and rules on the venue.
Markets & sources
Related topics
How Prediction Market Odds Work: Reading Prices as Probabilities
Prediction market prices are implied probabilities. See how YES/NO contracts settle at $1, how order books set odds, and how spreads compare to vig.
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<p style="font:13px/1.4 sans-serif;margin:6px 0 0">Odds via <a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/2026-women-s-us-open-winner-tennis-odds-2026-09-13?utm_source=wet-embed&utm_medium=attribution&utm_content=2026-women-s-us-open-winner-tennis-odds-2026-09-13">World Event Trading</a></p>W.E.T. is an information and data service — not a gambling operator. We take no bets and hold no funds. Nothing here is financial, legal, betting, or tax advice, or a prediction of the outcome, and prediction market trading involves risk of loss. Prediction markets may be restricted or illegal in your jurisdiction — check local law. 18+. See how we source and compute these odds in our methodology, or read the full disclaimer.
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