Index methodology · v1
W.E.T. Favorites Combo Index: methodology
Tonight’s favorites across the major leagues, tracked as one spread and priced as one combo.
The board strongly backs tonight’s favorites across the major leagues.
- Fewer than 3 qualifying markets live — the index reports insufficient data rather than a number (published methodology).
No defined evaluation event exists in the published methodology — this is a continuous index. Per WET-LOGIC §11.1 it is tracked for movement and never scored as a resolved forecast.
The W.E.T. Favorites Combo Index is a daily 0–100 reading of how strongly the market backs tonight's favorites across the major leagues — and the clearest demonstration of what this desk does.
Components
Active moneyline markets for games settling inside the daily window (MLB, NBA, NHL across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini). Derivative lines — totals, spreads, handicaps, prop counts — are excluded: this index reads who wins, not by how much. Each game contributes once, through its favorite.
Value
The volume-weighted mean favorite probability across games, 0–100. No single game may exceed 20% of the weight.
The combination reading
The basket page reads the identical holdings two ways: the diversified spread the index tracks, and the joint probability that every one of them resolves YES, bounded by the Fréchet–Hoeffding inequalities because the markets are not independent. Seeing both beside each other is the point — a mean and a product over the same markets are opposite risk shapes, and that difference is arithmetic, not opinion.
The joint figure is a computed statistic about a watchlist, never an offered instrument. W.E.T. does not quote, accept or route a combined position, and no venue is quoting one here. Every market trades individually, on its own venue, at the links in the holdings table.
What this index is not
This is a benchmark reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast and not advice. A high value does not predict that the event happens — it reports what prediction-market traders are collectively pricing right now. Prices move continuously and can be wrong.
An accuracy record for a benchmark requires resolved outcomes accumulated over time. W.E.T. publishes this index daily with a dated, immutable history from first publication — that published series is the audit trail. Calibration analysis will ship strictly when the resolved-outcome corpus supports it, never before. See the site methodology for the same discipline applied to the W.E.T. Score.
Maintained by Corbin V King. Methodology version v1. See the live value on the index page or all W.E.T. indices.