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Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October? Prediction Market

economyPolymarket · selected venue

Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October?

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$6.3K volume· Resolves Nov 11· Venue-attributed quote refreshes every 8s

Yes0%No100%

Venue observation · Observation time unavailable

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:20:14.637 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026-11-11 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this…
Full text
market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recognized settlement source

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Evidence

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Community Read

— yes · 0 votes

WET InsightVenue-attributed

Market backs No at 100% — all but decided.

This read covers the selected venue quote. See the venue evidence for related contracts.
Thin book — moves cheaply · resolves tomorrow.

WET Odds

Selected venue snapshot

Yes

100%

Polymarket (global)0%$6.3K$2.1K liquidity

This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.

Live Trades

Polymarket tape · Yes

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Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: Will annual inflation be 3.9% in October · YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

View venue listings

Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:20:14.637 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026-11-11 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this…
Full text
market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recognized settlement source

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