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Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

climatePolymarket · selected venue

Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

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$25 volume· Resolves Nov 9· Venue-attributed quote refreshes every 8s

Yes1%No99.4%

Venue observation · Observation time unavailable

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:18:11.489 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026-11-09 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closespastvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between November 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the reso…
Full text
lution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Recognized settlement source

Actions

Evidence

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Community Read

— yes · 0 votes

WET InsightVenue-attributed

Market backs No at 99% — all but decided.

This read covers the selected venue quote. See the venue evidence for related contracts.
Thin book — moves cheaply · resolving now.

WET Odds

Selected venue snapshot

Yes

99.4%

Polymarket (global)1%$25$1.2K liquidity

This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.

Live Trades

Polymarket tape · Yes

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View venue listings

Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide · YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

View venue listings

Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:18:11.489 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2026-11-09 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closespastvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between November 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the reso…
Full text
lution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Recognized settlement source

Actions