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Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or…

politicsPolymarket · selected venue

Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

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$424.8K volume· Resolves Jan 8· Venue-attributed quote refreshes every 8s

Yes5%No95.4%

Venue observation · Observation time unavailable

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:09:52.163 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2027-01-08 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question…
Full text
otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing: Find on Polymarket US

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Evidence

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Community Read

— yes · 0 votes

WET InsightVenue-attributed

Market backs No at 95% — all but decided.

This read covers the selected venue quote. See the venue evidence for related contracts.
Thin book — moves cheaply · 59 days to resolution.

WET Odds

Selected venue snapshot

Yes

95.4%

Polymarket (global)5%$424.8K$879 liquidity

This snapshot shows the selected venue contract. Related venue evidence is shown separately when available.

Live Trades

Polymarket tape · Yes

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View venue listings

Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 · YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

View venue listings

Polymarket links search the US catalog. Availability and terms may differ from the global quote.

Find on Polymarket USGlobal quote: YES sideSelected quote: Polymarket

The Signal Sheet

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Native contract response received 2026-11-10 14:09:52.163 UTC. This is WET’s document ingestion time.

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2027-01-08 04:59 UTCPolymarket contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Polymarket: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question…
Full text
otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing: Find on Polymarket US

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