US Political Risk Index
WUPRW.E.T. US Political Risk Index
A headline blend of political turmoil, election heat, and geopolitical risk.
Higher = a hotter US political regime (instability + contested races + external risk). Lower = calm.
History · 1 day
Computed from 3 markets (effective 2.8) · $0 vol · top holding 45%
Forward projection
A 14-day model extrapolation of this index's published history — a robust trend inside an 80% band. It reads the series, not the news: a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Projection begins once 7 daily readings are in (1/7 so far).
The desk read
Rose 8.9 to 45.6 (Moderate), led by geopolitical-risk (25% leg) (21→51%) +7.4; political-turmoil (45% leg) (20→33%) +5.9; election-heat (30% leg) (75→60%) −4.3.
Deterministic movement summary · every figure is arithmetic on the markets below
What moved today & why
Each market's signed contribution to today's move — pure arithmetic, auditable on its venue.
- +7.4
geopolitical-risk (25% leg)
21% → 51% · wet
- +5.9
political-turmoil (45% leg)
20% → 33% · wet
- −4.3
election-heat (30% leg)
75% → 60% · wet
WUPR · at a glance
- What it is
- The domestic-politics headline — one number for US political heat.
- High vs low
- Higher = a hotter US political regime (instability + contested races + external risk). Lower = calm.
- Who cares
- Political reporters and analysts who want a single read on US political instability and contestation.
What's in it today
Exactly which categories and markets drive today's value, by weight. Every input is auditable on its venue.
| Market | Category | Venue | Implied | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| political-turmoil (45% leg) | — | wet | 33% | 45.0% |
| election-heat (30% leg) | — | wet | 60% | 30.0% |
| geopolitical-risk (25% leg) | — | wet | 51% | 25.0% |
Quote this index
Journalists and researchers may quote W.E.T. indices with attribution and a link. Because the value moves, include the “as of” date. A citable form:
“As of Jul 31, 2026, the W.E.T. US Political Risk Index (WUPR) reads 45.6/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
A pasted link unfurls into a live card via oEmbed. Full method: W.E.T. US Political Risk Index methodology.
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.