Readings may not describe today6 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
6 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Republican Elections Index 2w
v1StandingExperimentalWeeklyThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "republican" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 8 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 10, severity frames 0 of 10, threshold frames 1 of 10), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: the universe admitted 1 canonical event(s) on this tape and this index's own declared eligibility ejected every one of them (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 1. That is a statement about LIQUIDITY rather than about coverage: the board does carry this subject inside this window, and no market it carries is tradeable at the thresholds this index published. The close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than admitting a member it declared ineligible.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 1. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 8959, horizon-unknown 21, horizon-outside-window 422. - universe: the declared 3–17d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 422 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 21 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 8959 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 1 of 1 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 37933d735517ef09 · methodology 27f761b4de6a1f56 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 46.75 on 2026-08-27. It is not carried forward.
8 elections markets carrying the "republican" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two weeks, tracked as one composition.
No return published — not one of this basket's 10 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-09-28. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 10
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 10
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 47.1%
- Inception
- 2026-08-24
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 29
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 10 markets
held since 2026-08-24 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?polymarket · YES · entry 90c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES90c75c−17.2%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?polymarket · YES · entry 9c20 sessions stalepolymarketYES9c25c+194.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?polymarket · YES · entry 92c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c93c+1.3%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?polymarket · YES · entry 88c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES88c87c−1.1%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be 12 or more?polymarket · YES · entry 2c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c1c−56.5%9.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?polymarket · YES · entry 5c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c4c−32.4%8.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?polymarket · YES · entry 3c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c2c−14.0%6.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?polymarket · YES · entry 2c26 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c1c−58.3%6.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 10?polymarket · YES · entry 2c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES2c2c−2.4%5.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 9?polymarket · YES · entry 4c25 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c2c−39.7%3.2%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WREPU · at a glance
- What it is
- 8 elections markets carrying the "republican" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside two weeks, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how republican is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 8 markets resolving inside 17 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Republican Elections Index 2w (WREPU) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.