W.E.T. Race Elections Index 2yr
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "race" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 20, severity frames 0 of 20, threshold frames 0 of 20), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (10)
- 5 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
- 5 of 5 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 0.200000. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- the weight vector is degenerate — the 0.15 cap is unreachable with 5 constituents (cap·n = 0.7500 < 1), so the weights are equal, not basis-derived
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 10. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16464, horizon-unknown 13, horizon-outside-window 43. - universe: the declared 200–730d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 43 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 13 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16464 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 5 of 10 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-below-floor 4, price-above-ceiling 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `polarity` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 5 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared polarity axis frames 0 of 5 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `polarity` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-09-28, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 8772952fe9493be7 · methodology 3e3b29d334ab065d · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
5 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
Last published reading: 34.06 on 2026-11-05. It is not carried forward.
31 elections markets carrying the "race" axis across kalshi, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 874.22
- Since inception
- −12.58%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 12.5% of 16
- 1 day
- −0.06%
- 7 day
- −10.54%
- Markets held
- 16
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 59.2%
- Inception
- 2026-09-28
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 22
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 16 markets
held since 2026-09-28 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?kalshi · YES · entry 94c4 sessions stalekalshiYES94c97c+3.9%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?kalshi · YES · entry 86c5 sessions stalekalshiYES86c93c+9.2%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Illinois?kalshi · YES · entry 2c4 sessions stalekalshiYES2c1c−31.0%15.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for SC-06?kalshi · YES · entry 97c4 sessions stalekalshiYES97c99c+1.3%8.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for FL-14?kalshi · YES · entry 65c4 sessions stalekalshiYES65c76c+17.1%6.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for TX-07?kalshi · YES · entry 96c4 sessions stalekalshiYES96c99c+3.2%4.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for MN-04?kalshi · YES · entry 96c4 sessions stalekalshiYES96c99c+3.1%2.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republican win the House race for MS-01?kalshi · YES · entry 95c4 sessions stalekalshiYES95c98c+2.4%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republican win the House race for MN-01?kalshi · YES · entry 75c0.6¢ spread · —/— within 5¢kalshiYES75c3c−96.4%1.4%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republican win the House race for FL-22?kalshi · YES · entry 48c4 sessions stalekalshiYES48c31c−35.8%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for CA-52?kalshi · YES · entry 97c5 sessions stalekalshiYES97c98c+1.3%1.1%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for GA-02?kalshi · YES · entry 95c5 sessions stalekalshiYES95c98c+3.6%0.9%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republican win the House race for WI-06?kalshi · YES · entry 94c4 sessions stalekalshiYES94c92c−1.9%0.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republican win the House race for AZ-05?kalshi · YES · entry 91c2 sessions stalekalshiYES91c94c+4.1%0.6%Kalshi ↗
- Will Republican win the House race for LA-06?kalshi · YES · entry 94ckalshiYES94c93c−1.4%0.5%Kalshi ↗
- Will Democratic win the House race for OR-06?kalshi · YES · entry 96c4 sessions stalekalshiYES96c99c+2.9%0.4%Kalshi ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedConstituents by weight
all 5 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWRAC2 · at a glance
- What it is
- 31 elections markets carrying the "race" axis across kalshi, every one resolving inside two years, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how race is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 730 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Race Elections Index 2yr (WRAC2) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.