Readings may not describe today1 scheduled close did not landWhy →Hide
1 scheduled close did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-10 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-09. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
W.E.T. Race Elections Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
45 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "race" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 20, severity frames 0 of 20, threshold frames 0 of 20), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (6)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 11653 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 11566, horizon-unknown 24, horizon-outside-window 63. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 63 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 11653 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 11566, horizon-unknown 24, horizon-outside-window 63. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 63 event(s) that every other selector admitted, plus 24 whose resolution date this source does not carry. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 11566 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 7add46e980378727 · methodology 53c0524805108dee · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 62.70 on 2026-09-04. It is not carried forward.
13 elections markets carrying the "race" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1027.33
- Since inception
- +2.73%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 89.5% of 19
- 1 day
- −0.44%
- 7 day
- +0.28%
- Markets held
- 19
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 48.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 20
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 19 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 72c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES72c69c−3.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 57c1.0¢ spread · 35.7k/7.5k within 5¢polymarketYES57c67c+15.7%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 28c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c30c+3.5%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 42cpolymarketYES42c34c−19.3%12.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 18cpolymarketYES18c12c−31.4%9.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 25cpolymarketYES25c22c−14.0%6.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c4c+17.2%4.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 72cpolymarketYES72c84c+16.8%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 24cpolymarketYES24c38c+59.6%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 4cpolymarketYES4c11c+151.2%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 66cpolymarketYES66c63c−4.6%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 66cpolymarketYES66c69c+4.5%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 63cpolymarketYES63c59c−5.6%1.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 58cpolymarketYES58c34c−42.2%1.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 47cpolymarketYES47c42c−9.7%0.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 66cpolymarketYES66c62c−6.8%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 70cpolymarketYES70c59c−15.1%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 2cpolymarketYES2c4c+102.4%0.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?polymarket · YES · entry 14cpolymarketYES14c30c+103.4%0.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WRACE · at a glance
- What it is
- 13 elections markets carrying the "race" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how race is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Race Elections Index 6mo (WRACE) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.