Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Inverse W.E.T. Political Turmoil Index Index 2yr
v3SlateExperimentalStandingAs of Sep 5, 2026 · last moved Sep 5, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Low support → High support)
Across the political turmoil universe, the prediction-market board reads calm.
The opposing claim
the same roster, read the other way — one close, two seriesThis index is one side of a pair. The same canonical roster, consolidated once, is read against the opposite case and published as its own governed series — so the counter-argument is a number on the board, not a caveat in the prose.
Read the opposite side →Holding both sides of this argument should cost nothing — the outcomes are exhaustive. It does not. The two levels sum to 2068.31 against a combined base of 2,000, and that gap is path, spread and friction rather than a view about the world. Gauges complement exactly; levels do not, because a level remembers the route it took.
Friction gauge Φ 1.15 · complement residual 0 — the gauge identity is checked at every close and published whether or not it holds.
Key statistics
- Previous
- 78.36
- Band
- Very high
- 11d Range
- 7893
- Percentile
- 64th
- 7d Change
- +0.8
- Volatility
- 8.0 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d up
- Markets
- 24
- Effective N
- 5.5
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 3 K · 21 P
- Method
- v3
Daily close
11d published · interactive11 published close(s) — 0–100 (Low support → High support). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 6 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 11d published · dashed = projected · no band publishedModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 11 readings, slope -0.40/day, projection σ 11.9 pts/d widened for a 11-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 24 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-05) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
WPOLI · at a glance
- What it is
- Across the political turmoil universe, the prediction-market board reads calm.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how political-turmoil is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 2 markets resolving inside 548.9200000000001 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 5, 2026, the W.E.T. Inverse W.E.T. Political Turmoil Index Index 2yr (WPOLI) prints a WET Index Score of 81.5/100 (Very high), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.