W.E.T. Party Elections Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "party" axis stops appearing in elections titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- A published axis starts framing this board. No axis frames a majority of it today (polarity frames 0 of 10, severity frames 0 of 10, threshold frames 1 of 10), and that measurement is what put this worldview on a side-symmetric lens; a composition whose sides become readable is a different index and belongs to a successor spec rather than to an edit of this one.
How this reading was constructed (9)
- 1 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
- 1 of 1 published weight(s) exceed the declared 0.15 cap — the largest is 1.000000. No valid capped vector exists for this roster, so `cappedWeights` returned one that violates the ceiling: at n = 1 it short-circuits at [1] before its own cap-feasibility test; when cap·n < 1 the equal-weight fallback 1/n is above the cap by definition; and when the members carrying a weighable basis number fewer than 1/cap the fixpoint caps them all, finds no room left to redistribute into, and renormalizes them back above the ceiling. The cap is NOT enforced on this vector and the row says so rather than printing a ceiling it did not apply.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 5. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16504, category-not-admitted 6, horizon-outside-window 15. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 15 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16504 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - eligibility: 4 of 5 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: price-above-ceiling 2, price-below-floor 2. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
- orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 1 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 1 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
- orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-09-28, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 7ce78be907e6eb4d · methodology 4c819d4c84e64c3a · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
1 priced constituent(s) against this spec's 6 floor — below it there is no index, there is a market
Last published reading: 40.32 on 2026-11-03. It is not carried forward.
8 elections markets carrying the "party" axis across kalshi, polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No return published — not one of this basket's 11 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-11-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 11
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 11
- Settled
- 4
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 85.2%
- Inception
- 2026-09-28
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 22
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 11 markets
held since 2026-09-28 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 8c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES8c6c−26.7%15.0%Polymarket ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. House? — Republican Partygemini · YES · entry 11c15 sessions stalegeminiYES11c10c−4.8%15.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 17c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES17c13c−21.2%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 4c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c3c−28.2%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 10c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES10c6c−42.8%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. House? — Democratic Partygemini · YES · entry 93c15 sessions stalegeminiYES93c92c−1.1%1.3%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 16c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES16c14c−6.5%0.7%Polymarket ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Democratic Partygemini · YES · entry 63c15 sessions stalegeminiYES63c65c+4.0%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? — Republican Partygemini · YES · entry 37c15 sessions stalegeminiYES37c35c−4.1%0.5%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 6c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c4c−30.0%0.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 12c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES12c7c−41.7%0.3%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Contribution by category
weight share of the roster the last close weighedConstituents by weight
all 1 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-11-14) · the basket below holds a different setWPART · at a glance
- What it is
- 8 elections markets carrying the "party" axis across kalshi, polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the markets are more torn — prices across the composition sit closer to a coin flip. Lower = more decided, in EITHER direction: a basket priced at 5% and one priced at 95% both read low. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how party is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“The W.E.T. Party Elections Index 6mo (WPART) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.