Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board
This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Midterm Control Index
v1SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Map settled → Battleground)
How contested the 2026 midterm map is, across every race the market prices.
Retired — read instead: the published W.E.T. index suite. no like-for-like successor is published yet. This reading declared the `elections` category plus one venue tag and no vocabulary; its tag screen rejected 38 of 57 candidates on the measured board, which is real narrowing but reaches only one venue’s questions and leaves every other venue admitted whole. The chamber-control question is a good index and the desk intends to publish one — named to the chambers and seats it prices. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 1007.37
- Since inception
- +0.74%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 14.3% of 31
- 1 day
- +0.46%
- 7 day
- +4.74%
- Markets held
- 31
- Settled
- 5
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 100.0% (5 of 5)
- Cash
- 64.3%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 31 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?polymarket · YES · entry 56c3 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 33.7k/169.5k within 5¢polymarketYES56c28c−48.6%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Democratic Party — Which party will win the U.S. House?gemini · YES · entry 85c13 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 3.7k/2.6k within 5¢geminiYES85c92c+8.3%5.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 61c1.0¢ spread · 45.2k/37.1k within 5¢polymarketYES61c95c+57.0%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 5c3 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 27.1k/4.9k within 5¢polymarketYES5c2c−66.7%4.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?polymarket · YES · entry 28c13 sessions stalepolymarketYES28c1c−96.1%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Before 2027? — Will crypto market structure legislation become law?gemini · YES · entry 33c15 sessions stale3.0¢ spread · 1.6k/250 within 5¢geminiYES33c6c−83.1%3.3%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 95c5 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 5.5k/589 within 5¢polymarketYES95c98c+3.9%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 96c5 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 605/521 within 5¢polymarketYES96c97c+1.5%3.0%Polymarket ↗
- Before 2027 — Will the US buy at least part of Greenland?gemini · YES · entry 4c17 sessions stalegeminiYES4c4c0.0%3.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Xavier Becerra — California Governor winner?gemini · YES · entry 96c15 sessions stale1.0¢ spread · 537/9.5k within 5¢geminiYES96c96c+0.5%3.0%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c97c+3.6%2.8%Polymarket ↗
- SAVE Act becomes law? — Will the SAVE Act become law?gemini · YES · entry 7c42 sessions stalegeminiYES7c7c0.0%2.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?polymarket · YES · entry 4c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c2c−59.2%2.5%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the WI-02 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c97c+3.1%2.2%Polymarket ↗
- Republican Party — Which party will win the U.S. Senate?gemini · YES · entry 56c13 sessions stalegeminiYES56c35c−38.1%2.2%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+4.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the WV-02 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c97c+2.6%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+4.5%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the WV-01 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c6 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c97c+4.0%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+4.5%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c97c+3.5%1.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 96c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c98c+2.8%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the VA-09 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 93c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES93c97c+4.2%1.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c98c+4.7%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 81c40 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c89c+9.9%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Marine Le Pen — French Presidential Election Winner 2027?gemini · YES · entry 33c13 sessions stalegeminiYES33c46c+40.0%1.7%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 91c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES91c93c+2.8%1.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-50 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 94c3 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c97c+3.9%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 95c7 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c97c+2.7%1.6%Polymarket ↗
- Christopher Luxon — Which world leaders will leave office in 2026?gemini · YES · entry 48c66 sessions stalegeminiYES48c44c−7.4%1.6%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?polymarket · YES · entry 84c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES84c95c+13.2%1.6%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 38d Range
- 2657
- Percentile
- 42th
- 8d Change
- +6.3
- Volatility
- 6.0 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 33
- Effective N
- 6.9
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Venues
- 33 K
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 33/36
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×0.9608
Daily close
38d published · interactive38 published close(s) — 0–100 (Map settled → Battleground). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 15 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 38d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 38 readings, slope -0.29/day, projection σ 7.0 pts/d widened for a 38-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
top 24 of 33 by weight · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setShow the remaining 4 holdingsHide the remaining 4 holdings
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to this question in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
How close will the November 2026 midterm elections be?
Clear — control is obvious earlyRazor-thin — a few races decide control
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WMID · at a glance
- What it is
- The battleground gauge — how much of the 2026 map is still genuinely in play.
- High vs low
- Higher = more of the map is a genuine toss-up. Lower = the map is largely settled.
- Who cares
- Campaign desks and political reporters who need one number for how contested the midterm map is.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Midterm Control Index (WMID) prints a WET Index Score of 48.6/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.