WMID
W.E.T. Midterm Control Index
v153.70— Moderate
As of Aug 1, 2026 · last moved Aug 1, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Map settled → Battleground)
How contested the 2026 midterm map is, across every race the market prices.
View the basket — the real markets + combined performance →Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Moderate
- 1d Range
- building
- Percentile
- —
- 7d Change
- —
- Volatility
- —
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 36
- Effective N
- 7.9
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Volume
- $11.0M
- Venues
- 28 P · 8 G
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 36/36
- Frozen
- 2026-08-01
History & 14-day projection
projection builds with historyProjection begins once 7 daily readings are in (1/7 so far).
Desk read
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The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
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What moved today
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
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Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueelections100% · 36
Constituents by weight
colored by category · every input auditable on its venueWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?86% · 20.0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House45% · 20.0%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?56% · 20.0%
Democratic Party — Which party will win the U.S. House?85% · 3.6%
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?61% · 3.1%
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?5% · 2.8%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?29% · 2.3%
Before 2027? — Will crypto market structure legislation become law?33% · 1.7%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?95% · 1.6%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?96% · 1.5%
Before 2027 — Will the US buy at least part of Greenland?4% · 1.5%
Xavier Becerra — California Governor winner?96% · 1.5%
WMID · at a glance
- What it is
- The battleground gauge — how much of the 2026 map is still genuinely in play.
- High vs low
- Higher = more of the map is a genuine toss-up. Lower = the map is largely settled.
- Who cares
- Campaign desks and political reporters who need one number for how contested the midterm map is.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Aug 1, 2026, the W.E.T. Midterm Control Index (WMID) prints a WET Index Score of 53.7/100 (Moderate), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.