W.E.T. Increases Economics Index 6mo
v1StandingExperimentalStandingThe §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.
increases-economics-inside-six-months-inverse reads — against this index’s —. Same markets, opposite side.
7 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.
- The "increases" axis stops appearing in economics titles: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
- Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
- The threshold axis stops framing this board. An axis that frames nothing leaves every member on the venue's own YES framing, which reads the board's listing convention rather than the thesis, and a level computed that way is not a reading of this claim.
How this reading was constructed (7)
- no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
- roster refused [empty-roster]: no canonical event on this tape satisfied the universe: 16530 considered, 0 admitted, rejected as keyword-miss 16519, horizon-outside-window 11. That is a statement about the BOARD on this date, not about the worldview: the close writes insufficient_data and no value rather than reaching for yesterday's number. Note that 11 event(s) passed every other selector and were removed by this index's own declared 60–200d window — an empty roster for a window nothing on the board resolves inside is the window working, not the close failing.
- universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 16530 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}), admitting 0. Rejections by reason: keyword-miss 16519, horizon-outside-window 11. - universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 11 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
- universe: 16519 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries
${m.title ?? ''}${m.marketRef}and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it. - no complement is available: the base printed nothing (insufficient_data). The identity needs two numbers, and an absent one is never treated as a zero.
- no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.
The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.
They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.
spec 0ff9041a66cdc1ee · methodology 0088116137ad5d45 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print
no constituent was admitted at all — an empty roster is a transport failure, not a finding
Last published reading: 16.95 on 2026-08-27. It is not carried forward.
6 economics markets carrying the "increases" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
No level published — the replayed series does not reconcile with this book. The replay ends +45.2% from base while the book's own closed and open positions give +90.3% — a 45-point disagreement. This book's units were resized by a rebalance without a new open date, so its day-one sizing is not recoverable from anything on disk and the history cannot be replayed honestly. A refusal is publishable; a wrong level is not.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 6
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 6
- Settled
- 0
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- —
- Inception
- 2026-08-18
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 0
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 6 markets
held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 43c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES43c68c+58.8%16.7%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 11c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES11c84c+700.0%16.7%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 24c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c12c−51.1%16.7%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c1c−77.8%16.7%Polymarket ↗
- Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 6c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES6c4c−32.2%16.6%Polymarket ↗
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?polymarket · YES · entry 19c15 sessions stalepolymarketYES19c8c−57.6%16.6%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
WINC5 · at a glance
- What it is
- 6 economics markets carrying the "increases" axis across polymarket, every one resolving inside six months, tracked as one composition.
- High vs low
- Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
- Who cares
- Anyone tracking how increases is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.
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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.