Readings may not describe today21 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
21 behind

21 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-08-26 and the newest print on file is still 2026-08-25. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board

This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →

WELW

W.E.T. Election Week Index

v1SlateDaily
29.70Stale · 21 closes behindLow & cooling, volatile

As of Aug 25, 2026 · last moved Aug 24, 2026 · scale 0–100 (DecidedToss-ups)

How contested the elections settling in the next two weeks are.

Retired read instead: the published W.E.T. index suite. no like-for-like successor is published. This reading narrowed the `elections` category by a single venue tag, which screens only questions on venues that carry that tag taxonomy and leaves the rest of the board untested; it admitted all 15 of its category cut on the measured board. A near-dated election reading is worth publishing, but it has to declare the contests it watches rather than a date window over a whole desk. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.

No level published for this basket

No return published — not one of this basket's 16 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-09-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.

Basket level · official print16 held · close 2026-09-14
No level publishedbase 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
Since inception
Cost to cross
Holdings marked
0.0% of 16
1 day
7 day
Markets held
16
Settled
11
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
72.7% (8 of 11)
Cash
69.7%
Inception
2026-08-01
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
41

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 16 markets

held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?polymarket · YES · entry 97c37 sessions stale98c+1.1%
  • Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?polymarket · YES · entry 86c37 sessions stale87c+1.2%
  • Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?polymarket · YES · entry 70c37 sessions stale67c−3.6%
  • Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 95c37 sessions stale97c+2.4%
  • Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?polymarket · YES · entry 94c37 sessions stale93c−1.6%
  • Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 92c37 sessions stale94c+2.3%
  • Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?polymarket · YES · entry 79c37 sessions stale87c+10.7%
  • Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?polymarket · YES · entry 82c37 sessions stale94c+15.3%
  • Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?polymarket · YES · entry 96c37 sessions stale98c+1.8%
  • Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?polymarket · YES · entry 90c37 sessions stale97c+7.8%
  • Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?polymarket · YES · entry 81c37 sessions stale85c+5.0%
  • Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 97c37 sessions stale98c+0.8%
  • Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 86c37 sessions stale91c+5.8%
  • Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?polymarket · YES · entry 87c37 sessions stale94c+8.6%
  • Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?polymarket · YES · entry 75c37 sessions stale83c+10.7%
  • Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?polymarket · YES · entry 31c37 sessions stale42c+37.8%

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Key statistics

governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews
Previous
Band
Low
18d Range
2641
Percentile
28th
10d Change
4.1
Volatility
4.4 pts/d
Streak
Markets
4
Effective N
4.0
Top Weight
25%
Venues
4 P
Method
v1
Basket
4/22
Frozen
2026-08-04
Chain
×0.7038

Daily close

18d published · interactive

18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Decided → Toss-ups). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 7 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.

History & 14-day projection

solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% band
0102030405060now27
Projected 14d
27.30
Change
2.40
80% band
055
Confidence
low

Model extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope -0.35/day, projection σ 5.8 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.

Desk read

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The desk's read on today's move

Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.

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What moved today

attribution — Premium
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much

Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.

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Contribution by category

weight share of today's value
elections100% · 4

Constituents by weight

all 4 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-08-25) · the basket below holds a different set

Where these markets are covered

4 of 4 constituents have a W.E.T. page

WELW · at a glance

What it is
The near-dated election board — the races that settle inside two weeks.
High vs low
Higher = the near-dated races are toss-ups. Lower = they are already decided.
Who cares
Desks working the immediate election calendar rather than the long map.

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Quote this index

free to cite with attribution + the as-of date
“As of Aug 25, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Week Index (WELW) prints a WET Index Score of 29.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”

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Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.