Readings may not describe today21 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
21 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-08-26 and the newest print on file is still 2026-08-25. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Retired for vagueness · no longer on the board
This index was published under the desk’s current standard and withdrawn from the board by amendment v1.3 §10, which holds a universe to the bar the thesis has always been held to: a universe that declares only a category makes no claim any market could falsify. Its methodology, its inverse twin and its failure ladder were all compiled — the declaration of what it was about is what did not hold up. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It returns to the board the day a committed spec declares a universe that names its subject — the bar it was refused by (`universe-names-no-subject`). Compiling a methodology is not the missing piece and never was. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Election Week Index
v1SlateDailyAs of Aug 25, 2026 · last moved Aug 24, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Decided → Toss-ups)
How contested the elections settling in the next two weeks are.
Retired — read instead: the published W.E.T. index suite. no like-for-like successor is published. This reading narrowed the `elections` category by a single venue tag, which screens only questions on venues that carry that tag taxonomy and leaves the rest of the board untested; it admitted all 15 of its category cut on the measured board. A near-dated election reading is worth publishing, but it has to declare the contests it watches rather than a date window over a whole desk. This page and its full history remain published for continuity.
No return published — not one of this basket's 16 open holdings carried a mark on 2026-09-14. The level would read exactly 1000 and the return exactly 0.00%, which is what an unmoved basket and an unobserved one look like from outside. They are not the same thing, so this one says which it is.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- —
- Since inception
- —
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 0.0% of 16
- 1 day
- —
- 7 day
- —
- Markets held
- 16
- Settled
- 11
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- 72.7% (8 of 11)
- Cash
- 69.7%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 41
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 16 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?polymarket · YES · entry 97c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c98c+1.1%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?polymarket · YES · entry 86c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES86c87c+1.2%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?polymarket · YES · entry 70c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES70c67c−3.6%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 95c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES95c97c+2.4%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?polymarket · YES · entry 94c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES94c93c−1.6%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 92c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES92c94c+2.3%4.9%Polymarket ↗
- Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?polymarket · YES · entry 79c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES79c87c+10.7%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?polymarket · YES · entry 82c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES82c94c+15.3%3.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?polymarket · YES · entry 96c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES96c98c+1.8%3.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?polymarket · YES · entry 90c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES90c97c+7.8%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?polymarket · YES · entry 81c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES81c85c+5.0%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 97c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES97c98c+0.8%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?polymarket · YES · entry 86c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES86c91c+5.8%2.4%Polymarket ↗
- Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?polymarket · YES · entry 87c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES87c94c+8.6%2.3%Polymarket ↗
- Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?polymarket · YES · entry 75c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES75c83c+10.7%2.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?polymarket · YES · entry 31c37 sessions stalepolymarketYES31c42c+37.8%1.1%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 18d Range
- 2641
- Percentile
- 28th
- 10d Change
- −4.1
- Volatility
- 4.4 pts/d
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 4
- Effective N
- 4.0
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 4 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 4/22
- Frozen
- 2026-08-04
- Chain
- ×0.7038
Daily close
18d published · interactive18 published close(s) — 0–100 (Decided → Toss-ups). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 7 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 18d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 18 readings, slope -0.35/day, projection σ 5.8 pts/d widened for a 18-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 4 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-08-25) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 4 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
WELW · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-dated election board — the races that settle inside two weeks.
- High vs low
- Higher = the near-dated races are toss-ups. Lower = they are already decided.
- Who cares
- Desks working the immediate election calendar rather than the long map.
Embed this score
always the latest published reading, dated · attribution built inPut the live WELW reading on your own site, README, or newsletter.
Badge For articles, profiles & READMEs
The index. Ready to share. Actual embed
[](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/election-week)<a href="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/indices/election-week"><img src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/api/indices/election-week/badge" alt="WELW — WET Index Score" /></a><iframe src="https://www.worldeventtrading.com/embed/indices/election-week" width="340" height="170" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="WELW — WET Index Score" loading="lazy"></iframe>Quote this index
free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Aug 25, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Week Index (WELW) prints a WET Index Score of 29.7/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.