WELW
W.E.T. Election Week Index
v134.20— Low
As of Aug 1, 2026 · last moved Aug 1, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Decided → Toss-ups)
How contested the elections settling in the next two weeks are.
View the basket — the real markets + combined performance →Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 1d Range
- building
- Percentile
- —
- 7d Change
- —
- Volatility
- —
- Streak
- —
- Markets
- 27
- Effective N
- 10.1
- Top Weight
- 20%
- Volume
- $2.6M
- Venues
- 26 P · 1 G
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 27/27
- Frozen
- 2026-08-01
History & 14-day projection
projection builds with historyProjection begins once 7 daily readings are in (1/7 so far).
Desk read
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The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
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What moved today
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Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
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Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueelections100% · 27
Constituents by weight
colored by category · every input auditable on its venueWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?97% · 20.0%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?64% · 15.3%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?80% · 12.8%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?86% · 7.4%
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?74% · 6.4%
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?70% · 5.0%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?96% · 3.7%
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?95% · 3.4%
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?20% · 3.2%
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?94% · 3.0%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?87% · 2.5%
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?92% · 2.0%
WELW · at a glance
- What it is
- The near-dated election board — the races that settle inside two weeks.
- High vs low
- Higher = the near-dated races are toss-ups. Lower = they are already decided.
- Who cares
- Desks working the immediate election calendar rather than the long map.
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Aug 1, 2026, the W.E.T. Election Week Index (WELW) prints a WET Index Score of 34.2/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.