Readings may not describe today5 scheduled closes did not landWhy →
5 behind

5 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.

Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes

WDEN2

W.E.T. Inverse Denver Football Index 6mo

v1StandingExperimentalStanding
No reading published for 2026-09-22

The §2.6 ladder refused this print at rung 2. A refusal is publishable; a carried-forward level is not — so this index shows nothing today rather than yesterday’s number wearing today’s date.

Governed close level
—
no level published
Gauge
—
Divisor
—
what chains this level to the last
Closes
28
latest 2026-09-22
The opposing reading

denver-football-inside-six-months reads — against this index’s —. Same markets, opposite side.

Coverage
12 of 13 admitted markets priced1 unpricedκ 0.8500 · floor 0.95weights two-sided-depth · cap 15.0%
Withheld by the sentinel

32 input(s) were quarantined by sentinel/v1 before this close and are excluded from the reading above.

What would make this reading wrong
  • The board stops listing markets that name Denver's football clubs inside this window: the selector then admits fewer than 6 markets and the index prints nothing rather than a level over a roster that no longer states the thesis.
  • Weight coverage falls below the declared floor of 95%, at which point the published state is insufficient_data and no value is printed — never a value carried forward from the last close that had one.
  • A Denver club in another sport starts sharing this one's published vocabulary, at which point the declared exclusions stop separating the two and the composition would silently become an all-sports index for this metro wearing a single-sport name.
How this reading was constructed (10)
  • weight coverage κ = 85.0% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%
  • universe: resolved by universe/v1 over 9403 candidate canonical event(s) from the `tape-text` source (${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef}), admitting 19. Rejections by reason: excluded-keyword 276, keyword-miss 9104, category-not-admitted 2, horizon-outside-window 2.
  • universe: the declared 60–200d horizon window (axis 8) was APPLIED and removed 2 event(s) that every other selector admitted. A member resolving outside the window this index publishes is not a member of this index's horizon, whatever else it is.
  • universe: 9104 event(s) missed the keyword screen on the `tape-text` source, which carries ${m.title ?? ''} ${m.marketRef} and NOT the venue subtitle, tag or series the nomination pool sees. That count is the UPPER BOUND on what the richer string could have added here; it is published rather than estimated, because the tape cannot supply the text that would settle it.
  • 276 canonical event(s) matched an excludeKeywords term and were not admitted. An exclusion is an ADMISSION decision and never a side one (§3.1): nothing here flips a member, it only declines to hold it.
  • eligibility: 6 of 19 admitted event(s) left the roster on the spec's own declared eligibility (minVolume 250, maxSpread 0.1, price 0.02-0.98) — by reason: below-min-volume 4, price-below-floor 1, spread-too-wide 1. An ineligible market is out of the universe; a member the close could not price stays in it and is counted against κ.
  • orientation: the declared `threshold` framing axis (§3.3) was re-read on this tape and took NO force [undetermined:coverage], framing 0 of 13 members and holding 0 of them NO. The declared threshold axis frames 0 of 13 members (0%), under the published 50% bar, so it takes no force today and no member is flipped by it. An axis that frames a corner of the board would state a direction for members it never read. This is the spec's own invalidation condition, measured rather than assumed. The axis is re-read at every close rather than frozen into a declared side table, so a roster whose contracts resolve and are replaced is oriented by the rule this spec published rather than by one evening's reading of it (cultivation-orientation/v3).
  • orientation: because the declared `threshold` axis took no force today, every member not named in `sideRules.declaredSides` and not matched by a keyword list is held on the venue's own YES framing. That reads the board's LISTING CONVENTION rather than this index's thesis, and it is the state the spec's own invalidation conditions name — published here rather than left to look like a decision the axis made.
  • no complement is available: the base printed nothing (insufficient_data). The identity needs two numbers, and an absent one is never treated as a zero.
  • no published document file was found for this spec, so the byte comparison had nothing to compare against and only the recompile legs ran. The whitepaper is compiled per request by /methodology/<slug>, which is a publication lag rather than a ledger fault — but the ABSENCE is published here, because an unsupplied optional parameter is invisible on the row and that invisibility is what let this leg go unrun.
Why there are two levels on this page

The governed close level above is divisor-chained: it tracks how the desk’s reading of this perspective has moved since 2026-08-14, and it survives a roster change because the divisor absorbs it. It is not a basket total return.

The basket total return below is a position book: it holds a fixed set of contracts from its own inception and reports what that book did, marks and settlements included. A roster change starts a new book rather than being absorbed.

They share a base of 1,000 and nothing else. Expect them to differ, and read the one that answers your question — the chained level for “where does this perspective stand”, the book for “what would holding it have done”.

spec 43d03f4fb9beb5b7 · methodology 890826b9e2f82067 · closed by standing/v1 · lifecycle experimental · class standing · no directional statement permitted from this print

No value publishedfor 2026-09-22§2.6 rung 2

weight coverage κ = 85.0% is below this index's floor κ_min = 95.0%

Last published reading: 71.24 on 2026-09-17. It is not carried forward.

The same markets naming Denver Broncos, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.

Basket level · official print10 held · close 2026-09-25
991.40−0.86%since inception · base 1000

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage

Basket performance

hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket total return
991.40
Since inception
−0.86%
Cost to cross
—
Holdings marked
70.0% of 10
1 day
+0.22%
7 day
−1.73%
Markets held
10
Settled
0
Rebalanced out
0
Hit rate
—
Cash
50.4%
Inception
2026-08-18
Weighting
Equal notional
Marks
Two-sided mid
Days tracked
33

Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.

Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.

A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.

Holdings · 10 markets

held since 2026-08-18 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs
MarketNowReturn
  • Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West?polymarket · NO · entry 68c74c+8.9%↗
  • Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?polymarket · NO · entry 92c94c+2.2%↗
  • Will the Denver Broncos make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?polymarket · NO · entry 42c44c+3.6%↗
  • Will the season series between the Broncos and Chiefs end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 52c46c−11.5%↗
  • 2027 Pro Football Champion — Denvergemini · NO · entry 96c9 sessions stale94c−2.1%↗
  • Will the Broncos win the season series against the Chiefs during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 76c9 sessions stale76c+0.7%↗
  • AFC Championship Winner — Denvergemini · NO · entry 92c4 sessions stale92c0.0%↗
  • Will the Chiefs win the season series against the Broncos during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 72c33c−54.5%↗
  • Will the Broncos win the season series against the Raiders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 56c62c+10.8%↗
  • Will the Raiders win the season series against the Broncos during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?polymarket · NO · entry 88c97c+11.2%↗

Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →

Contribution by category

weight share of the roster the last close weighed
sports100% · 13

Constituents by weight

all 13 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different set

WDEN2 · at a glance

What it is
The same markets naming Denver Broncos, read on the down case of the threshold axis rather than the up case.
High vs low
Higher = the composition is pricing more support for this thesis. Lower = less. A reading of market prices, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Who cares
Anyone tracking how denver-football is being priced across venues on a composition of at least 6 markets resolving inside 200 days.

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“The W.E.T. Inverse Denver Football Index 6mo (WDEN2) publishes a daily WET Index Score on a 0–100 scale, per World Event Trading.”

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