Readings may not describe today48 scheduled closes did not landWhy →Hide
48 scheduled closes did not land — the daily index publish was due at 10:37 UTC on 2026-09-23 and the newest print on file is still 2026-09-22. The reading below is carried forward from that date and does not describe today.
Readings below are the last that settled; none has been carried forward, restated or interpolated to cover the gap. Every row states its own date and wears its own age. How the desk publishes
Superseded · no longer on the board
This reading predates the desk’s current standard — it carries no compiled methodology, no inverse twin and no failure ladder. It is still published and its dated history is intact, but it is not part of the listed suite and should not be quoted as a current W.E.T. index. It rejoins the board the day its methodology is compiled and ratified. See the published suite →
W.E.T. Bitcoin Path Index
v1SlateMonthlyAs of Sep 22, 2026 · last moved Sep 22, 2026 · scale 0–100 (Doubted → Priced in)
How richly the market prices Bitcoin upside targets.
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage
Basket performance
hypothetical · mid marks · before fees, spread and slippage- Basket total return
- 886.32
- Since inception
- −11.37%
- Cost to cross
- —
- Holdings marked
- 56.5% of 22
- 1 day
- +0.81%
- 7 day
- −3.23%
- Markets held
- 22
- Settled
- 1
- Rebalanced out
- 0
- Hit rate
- —
- Cash
- 63.0%
- Inception
- 2026-08-01
- Weighting
- Equal notional
- Marks
- Two-sided mid
- Days tracked
- 70
Equal notional from each holding’s inception mark, re-marked at the two-sided mid. Percentages only, size-blind — never a cash figure and never a performance claim.
Cost to cross is the weighted half-spread at the touch on the newest mark tape: what entering at the quote rather than the midpoint would have cost. It is the price of the FIRST unit and says nothing about the tenth — the resting size beside each holding is published so a reader can judge whether their own size fits. It is not deducted from any return above.
A published measurement of what these markets did together. Not an account, not directly investable; W.E.T. never handles orders.
Holdings · 22 markets
held since 2026-08-01 · the reading above is computed over today's roster, which differs- Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027kalshi · YES · entry 14ckalshiYES14c4c−70.7%6.7%Kalshi ↗
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c15 sessions stale0.1¢ spread · 3282.3k/47.7k within 5¢polymarketYES5c3c−45.9%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 3cpolymarketYES3c1c−67.7%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 5c3.3¢ spread · 11.7k/14.4k within 5¢polymarketYES5c3c−35.7%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? — Above $99,999.99kalshi · YES · entry 13ckalshiYES13c14c+16.0%6.0%Kalshi ↗
- Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?polymarket · YES · entry 4c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES4c3c−29.1%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 27c3.0¢ spread · 94/1.4k within 5¢polymarketYES27c42c+53.7%6.0%Polymarket ↗
- Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 20c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES20c12c−38.5%5.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 3c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES3c2c−29.9%4.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 4c1.2¢ spread · 143.8k/2.0k within 5¢polymarketYES4c3c−35.1%4.6%Polymarket ↗
- Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 69c6.0¢ spread · 293/1.5k within 5¢polymarketYES69c87c+25.4%4.4%Polymarket ↗
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 8c2.0¢ spread · 17.5k/1.5k within 5¢polymarketYES8c3c−62.5%4.1%Polymarket ↗
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 17c2.0¢ spread · 58.2k/685 within 5¢polymarketYES17c4c−76.5%3.8%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 8c4.0¢ spread · 4.9k/169 within 5¢polymarketYES8c3c−56.0%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 83c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES83c28c−65.5%3.2%Polymarket ↗
- Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 24c42 sessions stalepolymarketYES24c7c−72.9%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 25c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES25c22c−12.2%3.1%Polymarket ↗
- $52,500 or above — BTC price on August 31gemini · YES · entry 93c54 sessions stalegeminiYES93c98c+5.4%3.1%Gemini Predictions ↗
- Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 5c5 sessions stalepolymarketYES5c2c−68.0%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?polymarket · YES · entry 67c66 sessions stalepolymarketYES67c53c−21.1%2.7%Polymarket ↗
- Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?polymarket · YES · entry 6c3.8¢ spread · 9.1k/158 within 5¢polymarketYES6c3c−41.1%2.6%Polymarket ↗
- Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?polymarket · YES · entry 12c2.0¢ spread · 205/126 within 5¢polymarketYES12c12c0.0%2.6%Polymarket ↗
Full basket ledger — settled outcomes, rebalance history, methodology →
Key statistics
governed basket · membership fixed between monthly reviews- Previous
- —
- Band
- Low
- 40d Range
- 923
- Percentile
- 100th
- 8d Change
- +3.1
- Volatility
- 1.3 pts/d
- Streak
- 2d up
- Markets
- 15
- Effective N
- 5.7
- Top Weight
- 25%
- Venues
- 15 P
- Method
- v1
- Basket
- 15/17
- Frozen
- 2026-09-01
- Chain
- ×0.9302
Daily close
40d published · interactive40 published close(s) — 0–100 (Doubted → Priced in). Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. One slot per published close, not one per day: dates on the axis are real, the spacing between them is not. 13 day(s) inside this window published no close and are not drawn at all. For the calendar-true spacing, read the chart below. Drawn as a line, not candles: a daily close carries no open, high or low, and a candle would assert an intraday range nobody observed.
History & 14-day projection
solid = 40d published · dashed = projected · shaded = 80% bandModel extrapolation of the published series (robust trend, 40 readings, slope +0.28/day, projection σ 1.4 pts/d widened for a 40-reading sample) — a benchmark projection, not a W.E.T. forecast.
Desk read
W.E.T. analysis — PremiumPremium
The desk's read on today's move
Why the index moved, in the desk's words — not just the arithmetic.
What moved today
attribution — PremiumPremium
Which markets moved the index, and by how much
Signed contribution per constituent, ranked.
Contribution by category
weight share of today's valueConstituents by weight
all 15 · what today's reading was computed over (2026-09-22) · the basket below holds a different setWhere these markets are covered
4 of 15 constituents have a W.E.T. pageThe odds pages covering the individual contracts this index reads. They are the evidence underneath the reading, not readings themselves.
The view this index measures
Every W.E.T. index tracks a question someone can hold a view on. This one is mapped to these 2 questions in the Worldview thesis map. Answering one places you on its continuum; this index is what that answer is measurable against.
Over the next year, will crypto become something people actually use?
No — it stays mostly a bet on pricesYes — more people pay and save with itWill Bitcoin set a new all-time high in the next 12 months?
No — it stays below its recordYes — a new record high
Where do you stand? The Worldview builder asks from this same set of questions and matches your answers to the W.E.T. indexes that measure them.
Turn your perspective into a portfolio →WBTP · at a glance
- What it is
- The BTC upside gauge — how richly the market prices the next leg up.
- High vs low
- Higher = upside targets richly priced. Lower = the market doubts the next leg.
- Who cares
- Crypto desks and reporters who want a single read on how bullish BTC positioning is.
Embed this score
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free to cite with attribution + the as-of date“As of Sep 22, 2026, the W.E.T. Bitcoin Path Index (WBTP) prints a WET Index Score of 23.1/100 (Low), per World Event Trading.”
Maintained by Corbin V King. A benchmark reading of market prices — data, not advice. See the disclaimer.