WeatherDec 31

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

Before 2028

Evidence & research ↓

Live board · a full analysis page publishes if this event qualifies for daily coverage.

The Market Read

Kalshi prices “Before 2028” at 11% — a longshot.

19.1K contracts in venue-reported volume. One venue-attributed observation; no cross-market aggregate.

Kalshi markets1Kalshi volume19.1K contractsEvent venuesKalshi

Driving Coverage

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Scanning the wire…

Checking other venues. The selected venue listings are available below.

Markets on this event

Venue-attributed quotes · open listing details

Before 2028

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

Kalshi·Observed 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC·19.1K contracts vol

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

Evidence pending— stored reads in flight; the market above is already complete.

Evidence

Stored reads · labeled by measure

WET Index relationship

Market

Refused · no-key-match

no listed WET index holds any of these listings as a constituent

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 06:46 UTC: one listing key checked against 1200 keyed constituent refs

Retires when a listed index takes one of these listings as a constituent and the artifact is rebuilt

Anchor research

Research

Refused · not-configured

The research engine has not been activated.

Availability details

Retires when the research engine is activated for this process: its stored feed configured and its tables initialised

Weather — official station context

Data

Refused · no-key-match

Select a verified listing with its explicit station association, local contract day and retained native source rules.

Availability details

Retires when A selected verified listing has a source-backed station key and a readable, pinned station collection.

Catalyst calendar — sourced dates only (venue close, event identity, stored schedules)

Dataexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

2028-12-31 04:59 UTCKalshi contract closesvenue close

Venue-published close instants and kernel identity fields · not an observation row

Market history — WET's own lead-listing capture (integer YES points, change-gated, directory-only, thirty-day retention), not a venue tape

Market

Refused · no-source

no stored capture for this event yet

Availability details

Measured 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC: no odds-single-listing/v3 rows for kalshi:KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-28 since 2026-11-03

Retires when the odds capture writes a row for this event (it covers the live markets directory only, change-gated hourly)

Official — venue settlement rules

Officialexact basis

As-of time not recorded · unknown

Settlement rules · Kalshi: If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Recognized settlement source: not recognized by the committed recognizer table (a statement about the table, not the venue)
Venue listing: View on Kalshi

Kalshi · retrieved 2026-11-10 13:59 UTC · venue terms permit display · venue-settlement-rules/v1

ActionsNo venue-native listing on this page to request research on