Sanctions package passes this month?
LostEntry 47¢Close 38¢CLV -9.0pts
Wrong call — priced the vote count too optimistically. A committee stall I underweighted. Logged as a process miss on whip-count reads, not a thesis miss.
Cup Rank #2 · 2026-Q3
Corbin V King
Founder & Anchor #1. Geopolitics desk, macro second.
WET VerifiedGeopolitics Champion
GeopoliticsFed / Macro
Pseudonymous · KYC privateWET Composite
59.4/100
Eligible
Closing-line value
+6.1pts
sharp-money metric
% return
+7.8%
size-blind · unit-stake
Hit rate
55%
at 50¢ avg entry
Resolved trades
144
2026-Q3 period
Max drawdown
39%
peak-to-trough
Brier
0.163
93th pct
Edge vs implied
+5pts
hit rate over price
How the score is built
Composite Breakdown
Closing-line value24.2/30
+6.1pts average CLV — the market moved toward these positions after entry. The sharpest, hardest-to-fake signal a trader leaves.
% return12.6/20
+7.8% unit-stake return across 144 resolved trades. Size-blind — never dollars.
Edge over implied12.5/20
55% hit rate at 50¢ average entry — an edge of +5pts over the price. Favorite-farming nets ~zero here.
Calibration (Brier)5.2/15
Brier 0.163 vs a 0.250 coin-flip baseline. The un-fakeable, un-importable piece of the badge.
Drawdown control0.2/10
39% max peak-to-trough on the equity curve. Rewards not blowing up on a losing streak.
Consistency / volume4.7/5
144 resolved trades this period. More resolved volume = more confidence the score is signal, not variance.
Size-blind — percentages only, never dollars. Full weighting at /methodology.
The credential
Verification
- Polymarket on-chain P&L
- WET calibration (Brier)
- Certified
- Jul 2, 2026
- Recert due
- Oct 1, 2026
The bar
Badge Criteria
- ≥100 resolved trades
- Positive trailing-6mo P&L
- Top-decile WET calibration
- Clean compliance record
- Exchange-verified source
- KYC on file (external ref)
Anonymous to the public, fully KYC'd to W.E.T. privately. The stat line is the star — no face, no social presence required.
Receipts
Notable Calls
Fed holds at the July meeting?
WonEntry 58¢Close 72¢CLV +14.0pts
Fought the "cut" narrative when the desk consensus wobbled. Dots + the CPI print supported a hold; closed 72¢, resolved YES.
Ceasefire signed before quarter-end?
WonEntry 34¢Close 61¢CLV +27.0pts
Entered at 34¢ off the wire divergence — Kalshi lagged Polymarket by 9pts. Market repriced to 61¢ within two days; resolved YES. Textbook cross-venue CLV capture.
Showing annotated highlights. Full resolved-trade history (144 trades) backs the composite; every entry price and mark is auditable against the verified source.
Preseason: the profiles and stat lines currently shown are an illustrative preview while the league forms — not verified trading records. Once live, stat lines are factual records of past, resolved positions, published to every reader alike as impersonal market analysis — not personalized trading advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Past performance does not predict future results. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. W.E.T. is not a registered investment or commodity trading advisor.