Sanctions package passes this month?
LostEntry 47¢Close 38¢CLV -9.0pts
Wrong call — priced the vote count too optimistically. A committee stall I underweighted. Logged as a process miss on whip-count reads, not a thesis miss.
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Founder & Anchor #1. Geopolitics desk, macro second.
+6.1pts average CLV — the market moved toward these positions after entry. The sharpest, hardest-to-fake signal a trader leaves.
+7.8% unit-stake return across 144 resolved trades. Size-blind — never dollars.
55% hit rate at 50¢ average entry — an edge of +5pts over the price. Favorite-farming nets ~zero here.
Brier 0.163 vs a 0.250 coin-flip baseline. The un-fakeable, un-importable piece of the badge.
39% max peak-to-trough on the equity curve. Rewards not blowing up on a losing streak.
144 resolved trades this period. More resolved volume = more confidence the score is signal, not variance.
Size-blind — percentages only, never dollars. Full weighting at /methodology.
Wrong call — priced the vote count too optimistically. A committee stall I underweighted. Logged as a process miss on whip-count reads, not a thesis miss.
Fought the "cut" narrative when the desk consensus wobbled. Dots + the CPI print supported a hold; closed 72¢, resolved YES.
Entered at 34¢ off the wire divergence — Kalshi lagged Polymarket by 9pts. Market repriced to 61¢ within two days; resolved YES. Textbook cross-venue CLV capture.
Showing annotated highlights. Full resolved-trade history (144 trades) backs the composite; every entry price and mark is auditable against the verified source.
Preseason: the profiles and stat lines currently shown are an illustrative preview while the league forms — not verified trading records. Once live, stat lines are factual records of past, resolved positions, published to every reader alike as impersonal market analysis — not personalized trading advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Past performance does not predict future results. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. W.E.T. is not a registered investment or commodity trading advisor.