New export-control tranche this quarter?
LostEntry 52¢Close 49¢CLV -3.0pts
Timing miss — the tranche slipped to next quarter. Right thesis, wrong window; the CLV was flat, which flagged the entry as marginal in hindsight.
Cup Rank #3 · 2026-Q3
Anchor 03 — The Sanctions Desk
Anonymous. Sanctions, export controls, and the crypto-regulatory crossover.
WET VerifiedCrypto Desk Champion
GeopoliticsCrypto
Pseudonymous · KYC privateWET Composite
59.0/100
Eligible
Closing-line value
+5.0pts
sharp-money metric
% return
+11.6%
size-blind · unit-stake
Hit rate
54%
at 48¢ avg entry
Resolved trades
114
2026-Q3 period
Max drawdown
37%
peak-to-trough
Brier
0.178
91th pct
Edge vs implied
+6pts
hit rate over price
How the score is built
Composite Breakdown
Closing-line value22.5/30
+5.0pts average CLV — the market moved toward these positions after entry. The sharpest, hardest-to-fake signal a trader leaves.
% return13.9/20
+11.6% unit-stake return across 114 resolved trades. Size-blind — never dollars.
Edge over implied13.0/20
54% hit rate at 48¢ average entry — an edge of +6pts over the price. Favorite-farming nets ~zero here.
Calibration (Brier)4.3/15
Brier 0.178 vs a 0.250 coin-flip baseline. The un-fakeable, un-importable piece of the badge.
Drawdown control0.8/10
37% max peak-to-trough on the equity curve. Rewards not blowing up on a losing streak.
Consistency / volume4.5/5
114 resolved trades this period. More resolved volume = more confidence the score is signal, not variance.
Size-blind — percentages only, never dollars. Full weighting at /methodology.
The credential
Verification
- Polymarket on-chain P&L
- WET calibration (Brier)
- Certified
- Jul 4, 2026
- Recert due
- Oct 1, 2026
The bar
Badge Criteria
- ≥100 resolved trades
- Positive trailing-6mo P&L
- Top-decile WET calibration
- Clean compliance record
- Exchange-verified source
- KYC on file (external ref)
Anonymous to the public, fully KYC'd to W.E.T. privately. The stat line is the star — no face, no social presence required.
Receipts
Notable Calls
Stablecoin bill clears committee?
WonEntry 39¢Close 58¢CLV +19.0pts
The regulatory read the sports-bettors miss. Bought 39¢ on markup-calendar signal; closed 58¢, resolved YES.
Showing annotated highlights. Full resolved-trade history (114 trades) backs the composite; every entry price and mark is auditable against the verified source.
Preseason: the profiles and stat lines currently shown are an illustrative preview while the league forms — not verified trading records. Once live, stat lines are factual records of past, resolved positions, published to every reader alike as impersonal market analysis — not personalized trading advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Past performance does not predict future results. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. W.E.T. is not a registered investment or commodity trading advisor.